AI Forecast Summary – Holiday 2025 (Domestic U.S.)

📊 AI Forecast Summary – Holiday 2025 (Domestic U.S.)

You can use the mid column as your headline forecast; low/high give you your band.

🎯 Per-Title Rationale, Comparables & Trend Signals

1️⃣ Avatar: Fire and Ash

Why this band?

• Franchise comps & legs

  • Avatar (2009): ~$77M OW / $785M domestic (10× multiplier due to December + 3D wave).

  • Avatar: The Way of Water (2022): ~$134M OW / $684M domestic (~5.1×).

  • Third entry keeps December corridor and premium formats, but some franchise “wow factor” erosion is likely. Disney UK

• Market context

  • December 19 release with a long runway and relatively clear January, very similar to Part 2, with box-office analysts already flagging it as a potential top film of 2025 alongside Zootopia 2 and Wicked: For Good. boxofficetheory.com+1

• Social & awareness

  • New trailers have pulled millions of views across official channels and sparked constant subreddit/Reddit discussion (hype + some skepticism about fatigue). euronews+2GamesRadar++2

  • Miley Cyrus original song announcement adds extra awareness outside core sci-fi demo. DIE WELT

How that maps to numbers:
OW mid $175M (slightly above Way of Water with inflation + PLFs), with ~4.2–4.3× legs → mid domestic around $750M.

2️⃣ The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Why this band?

• Franchise comps

  • The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water (2015): ~$55M OW / $162M domestic.

  • 2020’s Sponge on the Run was pandemic/streaming-distorted, so we lean on 2015 as cleaner precedent.

• Release & competition

  • Shares Dec 19, 2025 with Avatar 3 and David, and lands after Zootopia 2 in late November. Strong brand, but it’s the third big family title in the corridor, so a notch below 2015’s ceiling makes sense. Wikipedia+1

• Social media & partnerships

  • Teaser hyped on Animation Magazine and promoted via Roblox (SpongeBob Tower Defense trailer area) and official X account, indicating a proper kid + online-gaming push. Facebook+3Wikipedia+3SpongeBob Wiki+3

Numbers logic:
We dial to $45M mid OW (range 35–55) in a crowded family market, with ~3.2–3.4× multiplier → mid domestic $150M.

3️⃣ The Housemaid

Why this band?

• IP & demo

  • Adaptation of Freida McFadden’s BookTok-fueled thriller; the novel hit NYT bestseller lists and won awards, with a big #BookTok presence. WHO+1

• Package & release

  • Paul Feig directing; Sydney Sweeney + Amanda Seyfried lead, positioned as a glossy psychological thriller for adult women. Lionsgate is targeting a Dec 19 theatrical release up against big four-quadrant titles. Cosmopolitan+1

• Social buzz

  • Feig, Sweeney, Seyfried, and the studio are explicitly leaning into TikTok / BookTok marketing; Sweeney is already using TikTok trends and Instagram to push the film. Cosmopolitan+2WHO+2

• Comps

  • A Simple Favor (Feig thriller): ~$16M OW / $53M domestic.

  • Gone Girl: much bigger IP, so we treat it as an upper-ceiling rather than direct comp.

Numbers logic:
Given BookTok plus star power but heavy December competition, $20M mid OW (15–25 range) with ~3× legs → mid total $60M, with high-volatility upside if it becomes a “TikTok thriller of the season.”

4️⃣ Anaconda (2025)

Why this band?

• Positioning

  • A meta action horror-comedy reboot of the 1997 cult film, now directed by Tom Gormican (The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent) with Paul Rudd & Jack Black. Rotten Tomatoes+4Wikipedia+4IMDb+4

• Trailer & tone

  • First trailer coverage in People, EW, and Australian press emphasizes a “big, funny AND actually scary” jungle adventure, with footage driving online chatter around the duo’s chemistry and the Gold Coast locations doubling as the Amazon. People.com+2EW.com+2

• Comps

  • Cocaine Bear: ~$23M OW / ~$64M domestic — R-rated creature horror-comedy.

  • The Meg: larger scale, but good proxy for “monster w/ humor” appeal.

  • Gormican’s Massive Talent OW (~$7M) sets the “no IP boost” floor; the snake brand + bigger stars should lift well above that.

Numbers logic:
Christmas counter-programming with strong comedy stars → $27M mid OW (20–35 band) and ~3–3.2× legs → mid domestic $85M if WOM is decent.

5️⃣ Marty Supreme

Why this band?

• Package & audience

  • A24’s sports comedy-drama, directed by Josh Safdie, starring Timothée Chalamet, set in 1950s NYC ping-pong subculture. Wikipedia+1

  • Trailer coverage and music/film crossover buzz thanks to Tyler, the Creator in a prominent role and Safdie/Chalamet collaboration. Pitchfork+2New York Post+2

• Comps

  • Uncut Gems: ~$9.6M OW / ~$50M domestic (A24, Safdies).

  • Challengers (Luca Guadagnino/T. Chalamet-type tennis drama comps): mid-teens OW, ≈$50M finish.

  • A24 rarely pushes beyond ~2,500 screens, so it’s a prestige-plus mainstream hybrid, not a four-quadrant event.

• Social indicators

  • Trailer trending among film Twitter/Letterboxd and Tyler’s fanbase, but still niche compared to studio tentpoles. Pitchfork

Numbers logic:
We step slightly above Uncut Gems due to star power and Christmas slot: $14M mid OW (10–18 band) and ~3.5–4× legs → mid $55M domestic.

6️⃣ Song Sung Blue

Why this band?

• Positioning & release

  • Hugh Jackman / Kate Hudson biographical musical drama about Neil Diamond tribute act “Lightning & Thunder,” directed by Craig Brewer. It premieres at AFI Fest and goes wide via Focus Features on Dec 25, 2025, with international rollout the same week. Boh+4Wikipedia+4The Numbers+4

  • Focus is framing it as one of the big musical plays of the holiday. Boh+1

• Early critical + event buzz

  • AFI and Savannah screenings have produced mostly positive reviews emphasizing heart and music, plus Radio City Music Hall concerts with Jackman & Hudson performing songs — strong awards-season positioning and social content fodder. Wikipedia+2Rotten Tomatoes+2

• Comps

  • Rocketman: ~$25.7M OW / ~$96M domestic.

  • The Greatest Showman: $8.8M OW / $174M domestic (slow-build legs example).

  • A Star Is Born: a higher ceiling example (we treat this as aspirational upper bound given it had Gaga/Cooper + huge meme energy).

Numbers logic:
We split between Rocketman-style opening and Showman-style legs: $22M mid OW (15–30 range) with ~4.5× legs in a holiday musical niche → mid total around $100M.

7️⃣ David

Why this band?

• Funding & built-in fanbase

  • Holds the record as the largest audience-funded media project in history, raising ~US$49.7M of a planned US$60.9M via Angel’s platform. Securities and Exchange Commission+3Angel+3Celluloid Junkie+3

  • Faith/family audience already pre-engaged through Young David miniseries and years of development updates. Wikipedia

• Distribution drama & resolution

  • Distribution rights were in dispute in 2024–25, but Angel and 2521 have now re-taken the franchise and re-dated it for Dec 19, 2025. Wikipedia+2Wikipedia+2

  • Angel will likely re-use its Sound of Freedom playbook: “pay it forward” crowdfunding for marketing + church/faith-network mobilization. slingshot-productions.com+1

• Comps

  • Sound of Freedom (Angel): ~$19.7M OW / ~$184M domestic (outlier legs).

  • His Only Son (Angel): smaller but shows model can scale beyond niche. Angel

  • Classic animated Bible films like The Prince of Egypt (~$14.9M OW / $101M domestic) show the upside if families embrace it.

Numbers logic:
Because of faith-network strength but some brand/legal noise, we center on $24M mid OW (18–30 band) with ~4–4.2× legs → mid $100M domestic. Labelled high-volatility because this could either “Sound of Freedom” out-perform or land closer to ~$70M if campaigns misfire.

Actual:

Forecast vs Actual – Quick Scorecard

🦠 Predator: Badlands

• AI Forecast: $30–50M (midpoint: $40M)

• Actual: $38.9M

• Result: ✅ Inside range / very close to mid (~–3% vs midpoint)

This one is basically a bullseye. Franchise + Prey goodwill + PLF all behaved the way the model expected.

🎄 PAW Patrol Christmas

• AI Forecast: $8–18M (mid: $13M)

• Actual: $0.145M

• Result: ❌ Massively over (≈ –99% vs midpoint)

We forecasted it like a wide Christmas family opener; it’s clearly playing like a tiny specialty seasonal release (probably limited screens, daytime shows only, lots of Canada vs U.S. split, etc.).

🥊 Christy (Christy Martin biopic)

• AI Forecast: $3–9M (mid: $6M)

• Actual: $1.26M

• Result: ❌ Way over (~–79% vs midpoint)

Treated like a mid-level sports drama. Actual behaved like a small, targeted release.

💔 Die My Love (A24-style thriller)

• AI Forecast: $1–5M (mid: $3M)

• Actual: $2.61M

• Result: ✅ Within range, modest miss (~–13% vs midpoint)

Pretty solid: we tagged it as A24-ish arthouse and it opened right in that pocket.

⚖️ Nuremberg (prestige courtroom drama)

• AI Forecast: $1–4M (mid: $2.5M)

• Actual: $3.85M

• Result: ✅ Within range, high end (~+54% vs midpoint)

We guessed “adult prestige, small but awards-aimed.” It actually over-performed the midpoint and landed near the high end of our band. That’s a win.

🛢️ Sarah’s Oil

• AI Forecast: $4–9M (mid: $6.5M)

• Actual: $4.19M

• Result: ✅ Within band but at the floor (~–36% vs midpoint)

Model assumed a bit more breakout potential; reality was “solid but not breakout.” Still in range.

🇱🇰 Moda Tharindu (Sinhala)

• AI Forecast: $0.2–1M (mid: $0.6M)

• Actual: $0.048M

• Result: ❌ Way over (~–92% vs midpoint)

Treated like a typical strong diaspora release. It behaved like a micro-level, extremely limited rollout.

🇨🇳 Nobody (Mandarin)

• AI Forecast: $2–5M (mid: $3.5M)

• Actual: $0.167M

• Result: ❌ Way over (~–95% vs midpoint)

We modeled it like a sizeable Chinese-animation crossover. Actual looks like a tiny import / specialty run, maybe a handful of screens.

🇮🇳 Happy Khush Ho Gaya (Punjabi)

• AI Forecast: $0.5–2M (mid: $1.25M)

• Actual: $0.008M

• Result: ❌ Way over (~–99% vs midpoint)

Assumed standard Punjabi diaspora turnout. Actual = extremely niche / limited.

🇮🇳 Haq (Hindi)

• AI Forecast: $1–6M (mid: $3.5M)

• Actual: $0.183M

• Result: ❌ Way over (~–95% vs midpoint)

We treated it like a normal Diwali-season wide Hindi release; reality looks more like a small, scattered booking pattern.

Pattern Check – Where the Model Is Strong vs Weak

👍 What Worked

1. Major Studio / Franchise / Prestige Titles

   • Predator: Badlands, Die My Love, Nuremberg, Sarah’s Oil

   • All within the band, one almost bang-on (Predator).

   • This says: when the model has clear genre comps + understood release scale, it behaves well.

2. Range Design for Specialty Prestige

   • Nuremberg and Die My Love show the bands themselves were sensible. The issue elsewhere isn’t the band width — it’s the input assumptions (screens, scale, audience size).

👎 What Really Didn’t Work

1. Children’s Seasonal / “Event” Family Titles

   • PAW Patrol Christmas was forecast as a mini wide release, but the actual is clearly a specialty matinee / event-style play.

   • The model treated the IP like a full feature, not a limited seasonal add-on.

2. International / Diaspora Titles

   • Moda Tharindu, Nobody, Happy Khush Ho Gaya, Haq all came in 90–99% below the midpoint.

   • Core issue: the model assumed North America-wide behavior (hundreds of screens) where reality was dozens of screens, sometimes only in a few cities.

   • In other words: we forecasted them like “mini-studio releases”, but they were “tiny niche bookings.”

3. Mid-Tier Adult Dramas Without Clear Scale

   • Christy opened well below even our low end, because:

     • We implicitly assumed better marketing and maybe a wider footprint than it actually had.

     • Our comps were likely closer to Million Dollar Baby than to a small indie sports biopic.

Why This Happened (Root Causes)

Across the misses, there are three consistent blind spots:

1️⃣ We Didn’t Have Screen Count / Booking Scale in the Model

• Forecasts assumed something like 1,500–3,000 screens by default.

• Many of these titles (Paw Patrol Xmas, diaspora movies, Christy) were likely sitting at < 300 and sometimes < 50.

• No matter how strong the niche audience is, you can’t get to $5–10M OW on 40 screens.

2️⃣ We Over-Trusted IP / Brand Recognition Without Context

• “PAW Patrol”, “Hindi Diwali title”, “Chinese animation hit”, etc., were treated as though the brand alone guarantees big North American numbers.

• In reality, those brands may be huge at home but tiny in NA theatrical without marketing muscle or wide booking.

3️⃣ We Lacked a Separate Diaspora / Specialty Model

• Punjabi / Hindi / Sinhala / Mandarin import behavior is very different:

  • Strong in a handful of cities (Toronto, Vancouver, NYC, LA, Houston, etc.)

  • Performance heavily dependent on show count, daypart, and community mobilization.

• Our current model treats them like “small studio releases”, not “clustered, city-driven” films.