Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc (2025)

• Genre: Dark fantasy action-anime

• Studio / Release: MAPPA • U.S. theatrical: Oct 24, 2025 (staggered global rollout began in Sept). Crunchyroll+2Crunchyroll+2

• Director / Cast: Tatsuya Yoshihara • Kikunosuke Toya (Denji), Reina Ueda (Reze), Tomori Kusunoki (Makima). Wikipedia

• Runtime / Rating: ~100 min • Rated R (U.S.). Box Office Mojo

• Global to date (pre-U.S. launch): ~$68.3M (international only). Box Office Mojo+1

📊 AI-Structured Box Office Report (U.S.)

1) Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S.)

• Status: Projected; U.S. release Fri, Oct 24, 2025. Crunchyroll+1

• External analyst read: Todd M. Thatcher pegs OW at $12.8M. All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster

• AI Forecast Range: $10M – $18M (midpoint $14–15M), reflecting strong core fandom + premium formats, but thinner mainstream awareness vs. top anime brands. Crunchyroll+1

2) Total Domestic (U.S.) Projection

Scenario Total Domestic

Low$25M

Mid$35M

High$50M

Why: Anime films often front-load with fan turnout; multiplier likely ~2.0–2.7× unless WOM expands beyond core. (As of now, Box Office Mojo lists no U.S. figure.) Box Office Mojo

3) Canadian Gross (Projection)

Scenario BasisCanada

Low8% of $25M$2.0M

Mid10% of $35M$3.5M

High12% of $50M$6.0M

Given strong anime fandom in Canada and likely wide play via Crunchyroll/Sony, lean $3.5–5.0M if screens/formats are robust. Crunchyroll

4) Weekend 1 → Weekend 2 % Drop (Forecast)

• Forecast: –50% ± 5 pts. Fan-driven openings can be front-loaded; holds improve with positive WOM and premium-format availability into week 2. Crunchyroll

📈 Comparable Films

Film Opening Weekend/ Total Domestic- Wk1→Wk2 Drop - Why Comparable

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)~$8.6M/$49M –45% - Strong series IP → steady legs

Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle (2023) $37M/$101M –35%- Top-tier brand, ceiling case

One Piece Film: Red (2022) $31M/ $101M~–47% Giant legacy IP, event framing

My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission (2021) $5.1M/$12M~–60%Smaller U.S. footprint Evangelion: 3.0+1.0 (2021)~$5.6M/$10M –55% - Legacy niche, front-loaded

These comps bracket likely performance: Chainsaw Man fandom is sizable but not (yet) Demon Slayer/One Piece-level mainstream in U.S. theaters. (Aggregate comp references.) Box Office Mojo

🧭 Competitive Landscape (Oct 24 Frame)

• Crowded window: Shares screens with horror/genre titles and specialty adult fare; late-October timing suits anime events and premium formats (IMAX/4DX). Crunchyroll

• Global momentum: Pre-U.S. rollout already strong (~$68.3M int’l), setting a high global floor. Box Office Mojo

🧮 AI Box Office Projection Table

RangeOpening Weekend (U.S.)Total Domestic (U.S.)

Low$10M / $25M

Mid$14M / $35M

High $18M/ $50M

Why this band: International traction + event tactics (recap drops, early screenings). U.S./Canada conversion depends on screen count and PLF support; expect fan-front-load with room for mild over-performance if WOM breaks wider. GamesRadar++1

📱 Social Media & Hype Snapshot (as of Oct 20, 2025)

PlatformReach / ActivityBuzz Highlights / Trend

YouTube New trailers via Sony/Crunchyroll; recap video to onboard newcomersHype for “Denji vs. Bomb Girl” set-pieces; elevated scope vs. S1/ Strong YouTube+1

TikTok Hashtags #ChainsawManMovie, #RezeArc gaining; no public aggregate yet Creator edits, reaction loops, “Bomb Girl” focus/ Rising GamesRadar+

Instagram Official reels from Sony/Crunchyroll/MAPPAReze design + “Bomb Hybrid” transformation aesthetics driving saves/sharesStrong in-fandom Instagram

Reddit r/anime, r/movies chatter: “movie over S2?”, adaptation scopeExcitement tempered by concerns re: compression - Mixed-positive GamesRadar+

Event tactics moving the needle: Crunchyroll’s free Season 1 on YouTube watch event and two feature-length recap movies, prime casuals before opening. GamesRadar++1

NYCC spotlight: Team teased “amusement-park-ride” action; director Yoshihara calls it “a new genre… love, violence, action, romance, shark.” EW.com

Music tie-ins: Ending theme “JANE DOE” by Kenshi Yonezu & Hikaru Utada expands reach into music media. Wikipedia

🧠 Analyst Takeaway

This campaign is highly aware within the anime niche and increasingly visible to casuals via recap/early-access tactics and premium-format positioning. Expect a fan-led opening around $14M and a domestic finish near $35M unless WOM catalyzes beyond core. The robust international run already puts the global total on a strong footing heading into the U.S./Canada launch. All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster+1

📝 Quick Links

• 🎟 Tickets / U.S. release details (Crunchyroll) Crunchyroll

• 📈 Box office page (Box Office Mojo) Box Office Mojo

• 📰 Release guide/context (GamesRadar) GamesRadar++1

• 🎥 Series recap video (YouTube) YouTube

🧮 Final Forecast Snapshot

Metric Projection

U.S. Opening Weekend~$14M (midpoint)

U.S. Total Domestic~$35M (midpoint)

Canada$3.5–5.0M (wide + PLF)

Wk1→Wk2 Drop–50% ± 5 pts

Global (pre-U.S.)~$68.3M (int’l)

Actual: TBD