Dhurandhar - Dec 5

🎬 Dhurandhar (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Indian distributor with NA partnership
Release Date: Dec 5 2025 (North America)
Genre / Rating: Spy Thriller / Action / Likely NR or 14A
Data Confidence: Low–Medium (region-limited data)
Forecast Volatility: High (niche, foreign-language, long runtime, limited marketing)

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S./Canada) — Conservative Projection

Because Dhurandhar will not receive a wide North American release, forecasts assume a

diaspora-focused, limited run in ~25–45 screens.

AI Forecast Range (North America):

• Low: $250,000

• Mid (AI Midpoint): $450,000

• High: $750,000

Notes:

• Applies Low Hype Penalty (–40%) due to foreign-language, niche appeal, and likely

  <20M trailer views in NA.

• Long runtime (3+ hours reported) means fewer showtimes per day.

• Competition from major Hollywood titles will limit accessible showtimes.

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross (North America) — Conservative Baseline

Hindi-language theatrical runs in North America vary widely; diaspora turnout and WOM drive legs more than marketing.

AI Total Domestic Forecast:

• Low: $650,000

• Mid: $1.2M

• High: $2.0M

Canada Estimate (8–12% rule):

• $65K – $120K
  Higher concentration expected in GTA, Brampton, Surrey, Calgary.

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve

Weekend% Drop - Commentary

1 → 2 –50% Diaspora rush in first 3 days; steep fall normal for niche Hindi releases.

2 → 3 –45% WOM may help hold in top Indian markets.

3 → 4 –40% Slower decline in cities with strong repeat turnout (Toronto, NJ).

Legs Estimate: ~2.6×–2.8× OW (diaspora films tend to be front-loaded).

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment % of Audience Insight

Male 18–44 40–50% Core action-thriller diaspora turnout.

Female 18–44 25–30% Urban diaspora + community outings.

Male 45–64 10–15% Stronger interest in traditional Bollywood spy/action genre.

Female 45–64 8–12% Limited unless star-driven appeal is strong.

Teens <5% Minimal traction; long runtime reduces appeal.

Families <5% Genre not family-oriented; runtime limits matinee viability.

Drivers: South Asian diaspora (India/Pakistan/Nepal/Bangladesh).
Underserved: Non-Hindi-speaking audiences, general multiplex crowd.

5️⃣ Comparable Films (North America)

Film Opening Weekend (NA)/Total Domestic - Why Comparable

War (2019) $1.6M/$4.8M Hindi action with strong diaspora turnout.

Pathaan (2023) $6.7M/$17.5M - Massive Hindi blockbuster; used to scale expectations down.

Fighter (2024) $1.5M/$3.1M - Action-heavy Hindi release; moderate diaspora turnout.

Vikram Vedha (2022) $1M/$2.7M - Similar action-thriller style; limited crossover appeal.

Jawan (2023) $6.1M/$15M - Major Shah Rukh Khan outlier; helps anchor upside potential.

Purpose: Scale Dhurandhar conservatively based on lower market penetration, runtime challenges, and star power differences.

6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot (North America)

Platform Momentum Commentary

YouTube - Moderate (India-heavy views; low NA %) - Trailer reach high in India, but limited NA engagement.

TikTok - Low - Hindi action films rarely trend in NA unless viral scenes emerge.

X (Twitter) Moderate (diaspora chatter)Discussed in South Asian circles; low mainstream pickup.

Reddit Low Mostly in r/Bollywood and diaspora subs.

Overall Sentiment: Positive but geographically concentrated.
Momentum: Strong in India; small but passionate NA niche.

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast

Factor Estimate Notes

Concession Spend Per Capita$6.00–$7.25 - Diaspora audiences spend slightly above arthouse but below tentpole.

Staffing Intensity 2/5 Narrow audience; not high-volume.

Showtime Clustering Evenings + peak weekend Long runtime makes matinees less effective.

Premium Format Demand Low PLF rarely used for Hindi releases in NA unless star-driven

Community Activation Moderate Diaspora group bookings (small-scale) may help.

Exhibitor Insight:
Best booked in targeted markets (Toronto, Vancouver, Surrey, Mississauga, NJ/NYC, Chicago, Houston).
Efficient to play 1–2 showtimes daily.
Expect strong Friday night + Saturday early evening.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table

Range Opening Weekend / Total Domestic/ Canada - Worldwide*

Low $250K/$650K/$65K - High variation (India-driven)

Mid $450K/$1.2M/$95K - NA minor contributor

High $750K/$2.0M/$120K - Potential bump if star power surges

*Worldwide driven almost entirely by India + UAE, not included in NA forecast.

9️⃣ Executive Summary

Dhurandhar is positioned as a diaspora-driven, limited-run Hindi action thriller in North America. Using the v4.1 Conservative Baseline, the model forecasts a $450K midpoint opening weekend and $1.2M total domestic trajectory, reflecting a release restricted by long runtime, niche appeal, limited screen count, and low crossover into the mainstream multiplex audience.

The film’s performance in North America will be dictated by South Asian diaspora turnout, targeted urban markets, and word-of-mouth within community groups. While not expected to break out regionally, Dhurandhar should deliver solid niche performance on a scale typical for mid-tier Hindi spy/thriller titles.

Actual:
📈 AI Forecast vs Actual: Dhurandhar (2025)

This weekend delivered one of the biggest forecasting surprises of the season.

The AI Box Office model projected:

$250K–$750K opening (midpoint: $450K) for Dhurandhar, a Hindi spy-thriller expected to play in a small, diaspora-focused release.

Instead, the film opened to a massive $2.3M across North America — more than 4× above our midpoint projection.

🔍 Why Did Dhurandhar Overperform?

✅ Much wider release than assumed

The film appears to have launched on 120–180 screens, not the 25–45 we modeled. Screen count alone can add millions in upside.

✅ Spy-action genre = diaspora powerhouse

We underweighted how strongly male 18–44 audiences turn out for Hindi action films, even without huge NA marketing.

✅ India-driven hype translated directly to NA turnout

Trailer views and social buzz were heavily India-based — but this still drives North American demand when exhibitors book wide.

✅ Strong group turnout in GTA, Surrey, Calgary

Key diaspora markets over-indexed, pushing per-screen averages higher than expected.

🔧 Model Improvements Going Forward

To learn from this overperformance, v4.2 of our forecasting model will:

* Make screen-count estimation a mandatory first step

* Reclassify Hindi spy/action as a Tier 2 genre (not niche)

* Increase the impact of India-heavy trailer views

* Apply a Diaspora Surge Multiplier for GTA / Vancouver / Calgary circuits