Five Nights at Freddy's 2

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 (2025)

A Conservative, Data-Driven Look at the Horror Sequel’s Box Office Potential

Using The AI Box Office Forecast System v4.1

Horror sequels come with high expectations, devoted fanbases, and unpredictable box office performance. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2, arriving December 5, 2025, has all three.

With The AI Box Office model now updated to v4.1 Conservative Baseline, here is the full forecast for the film’s opening weekend, total domestic performance, audience behavior, operational impact, and social momentum.

About the Film

The sequel to 2023’s massive PG-13 horror hit, Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 continues the story of the haunted animatronics at Freddy Fazbear’s Pizza. Backed by Universal and Blumhouse, the film uses a theatrical-only release strategy, improving box office potential compared to the first film’s hybrid release.

Opening Weekend Forecast (Conservative Baseline)

Horror is historically front-loaded, especially with an established fanbase. Using updated genre and volatility adjustments:

Opening Weekend (U.S. Domestic):

• Low: $25M

• Mid (AI Midpoint Forecast): $38M

• High: $50M

Why this range:

• PG-13 horror with mainstream appeal

• Strong crossover from the FNAF gaming community

• No day-and-date streaming

• High fan interest but volatile second-week drops

Total Domestic Gross Projection

Horror sequels open strong but fade quickly. Based on v4.1 multipliers:

• Low: $60M

• Mid: $95M

• High: $130M

Canada is expected to contribute 5–7% of domestic totals due to strong horror turnout and FNAF’s gamer following.

Projected Drop Curve

Weekend% Drop Commentary

1 → 2 -58% Heavy fan rush; steep horror drop typical

2 → 3 -45% Stabilization if WOM is positive

3 → 4 -40% Runs out of steam mid-December

Legs Estimate: 2.5x–2.7x opening weekend

Audience Demographics (AI Estimate)

Segment % of Audience Notes

Male 18–34 35–45% Core horror + gamer demographic

Female 18–34 25–30% Strong appeal for group outings

Adults 35–49 15–20% Horror regulars

Teens 5–10%Strong interest but limited late-night access

Families <5%Minimal due to genre

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 skews young adults with a strong evening turnout.

Comparable Films

Comparable titles help shape realistic expectations:

• Five Nights at Freddy’s (2023) – $80M opening (hybrid release)

• A Quiet Place Part II – $47M opening

• The Conjuring – $41M opening

• M3GAN – $30M opening

• It – $123M opening (upper ceiling case)

Social Media and Sentiment Analysis

YouTube: Strong trailer views; high fan retention
TikTok: Fan edits, countdown videos, and meme activity are rising
X/Reddit: Highly active horror and gaming communities
Gaming forums: Significant speculation and theory discussions

Overall momentum is strong within target demographics, with growing general-audience awareness.

Exhibitor Operations Impact

Factor AI Estimate Notes

Concession Spend: $6.50–$7.50 Strong during evening/late shows

Staffing: 3.5/5 Higher staffing needed Fri–Sat evenings

Showtime Demand: Evenings and Late Night, Minimal matinees

Premium Format Demand: Moderate. Some fans seek premium scares

Community Activation: High, strong potential for events and theme nights

Exhibitor Insight:
Schedule for packed evening shows, especially Friday and Saturday. Late-night screenings and theme events can significantly boost turnout and revenue.

AI Box Office Projection Table

Range Opening Weekend/Total Domestic/Canada/Worldwide*

Low $25M/$60M/$3M–$4M/$120M–$150M

Mid $38M/$95M/$5M–$6M/$200M–$250M

High $50M/$130M/$7M–$8M/ $300M–$350M

*Worldwide performance varies greatly based on international horror acceptance.

Executive Summary

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 arrives with strong franchise momentum, an energized horror community, and the advantage of being theatrical-only. The AI conservative baseline forecasts a $38M opening weekend and a $95M domestic total, with large Friday/Saturday night spikes and steep second-week drops typical of the genre.

While not expected to match the hybrid-boosted phenomenon of the first film, FNAF 2 positions itself as one of the stronger horror performers of 2025, driven by social buzz, gamer engagement, and loyal franchise fans.

For exhibitors, this is an evening-driven horror title with excellent group turnout potential and strong late-night programming opportunities.

Actual

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 delivered a massive $63 million opening weekend in North America—far above The AI Box Office’s conservative forecast range of $25–$50 million (midpoint: $38M). The sequel beat even the high-end projection by more than $13 million, proving again that fan-driven PG-13 horror can behave more like an event title than a traditional scary-movie sequel.

Why It Overperformed

Several real-world forces pushed FNAF 2 higher than expected:

• Fanbase loyalty from the first film stayed almost fully intact—despite the three-year gap.

• A theatrical-only launch (vs. Peacock hybrid for FNAF 1) boosted demand.

• TikTok, YouTube edits, and fandom communities created huge pre-release momentum the model underweighted.

• Early December proved to be a high-value corridor with little direct competition.

• The film appeals to a unique blend of gamers + horror fans + casual teens, making its audience broader than typical genre comps.

What We Learned

This weekend helps refine the AI Box Office forecast model:

• PG-13 horror with active fandoms requires a higher opening-weekend multiplier.

• Theatrical-only releases must be weighted more heavily when the prior film was hybrid.

• High TikTok and YouTube engagement should trigger an upward correction of 20–35% in forecasts.

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 now stands out as one of 2025’s most successful horror openings—and a reminder that when fandoms mobilize, the box office can still surprise everyone.