Good Fortune

Good Fortune (2025)

Human-Led Insight Meets AI-Supported Forecasting

Box office forecasting has always been part data, part intuition — and Good Fortune (2025) sits at the perfect intersection of both.
Directed and written by Aziz Ansari, the film blends humor, hope, and human connection in a way that invites both laughter and reflection. Using structured AI analysis, we can understand how social buzz, tracking data, and genre trends are shaping this film’s theatrical outlook — while still celebrating the creative instincts that make cinema special.

🎬 Film Overview

Title: Good Fortune (2025)

Director / Writer: Aziz Ansari

Cast: Keanu Reeves, Aziz Ansari, Seth Rogen, Keke Palmer, Sandra Oh

Genre / Tone: Supernatural Comedy / Life-after-death fantasy

Distributor: Lionsgate

Release Date (U.S.)October 17, 2025

Runtime: 112 minutes

Budget (est.)≈ $40 million

Rotten Tomatoes (early)83 % Critics / 89 % Audience (preview screenings)

Tracking / Pre-SalesMediaPredict: implied line ≈ $18 M opening

Opening Weekend Forecast (North America)

Scenario Range Notes

Low $12 M – $15 M - Limited buzz / soft marketing

Mid$16 M – $20 M - Matches tracking + ensemble appeal

High$22 M – $30 M+ - If reviews + word-of-mouth pop like Everything Everywhere All at Once

➡ AI Midpoint Forecast: ≈ $18 M — in line with current tracking data.

Total Domestic Gross Projection

ScenarioEstimateLogic

Low $35 M – $55 M - Front-loaded interest, lighter legs

Mid $60 M – $90 M -Typical 3× multiplier for feel-good comedies

High $100 M – $125 M +Crossover breakout à la Book Club or Crazy Rich Asians

Canadian & International Estimate

Canada: ≈ 8 – 12 % of domestic → $5 M – $10 M
International: Strong appeal in English-speaking + Asian markets; $80 M – $120 M global (mid-case).

Weekend-2 Drop & Long Legs

Expect a 45 – 55 % drop typical of comedies.
With strong word-of-mouth and festival acclaim, the drop could hold closer to 35 – 45 %, especially if awards-season chatter boosts the Reeves / Ansari chemistry.

Comparable Films (Genre / Tone / Star Power)

Film Opening/ Weekend Domestic / Total RT (Critic / Audience)/Why Comparable

Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022)$0.5 M (limited) → $6 M wide/$77M / 94 / 89 - Multiverse comedy-drama with strong legs

Long Shot (2019)$9.7 M/$30 M/81 / 74/Smart adult comedy with star duo

The Intern (2015)$17 M$76 M/ 61 / 73/ Feel-good PG-13 ensemble

This Is the End (2013)$20.7 M$101 M/ 83 / 72/ Rogen ensemble with genre twist

These comps reinforce a mid-case projection around $18 M opening / $80 M domestic total.

Strengths & Risks

Strengths

• Charismatic ensemble (Reeves + Ansari + Rogen)

• Positive reviews and festival reception

• “Second-chance at life” theme connects across age groups

• Smart counter-programming in October

• Emotional core balanced by humor

Risks

• Mid-budget comedies remain fragile post-pandemic

• Competition from The Black Phone 2 and Truth & Treason

• 110 + minute runtime may limit showtimes

• Marketing must clarify tone (spiritual vs comic)

AI Projection Summary

RangeOpening WeekendTotal Domestic

Low$12 – $15 M/$35 – $55 M

Mid$16 – $20 M/$60 – $90 M

High$22 – $30 M+/$100 – $125 M+

Social Media & Buzz Report — Good Fortune (2025)

Platform / AssetViews / ReachEngagementComments / Buzz Highlights

YouTube – Official Trailer (Lionsgate)/Featured on Lionsgate & Rotten Tomatoes pages/Likes not public/Fans discuss premise, ensemble, tone

Reddit / r/movies & r/boxoffice/Multiple trailer threads/Hundreds of upvotes/“Can Reeves bring audiences back to comedy?”

Press / Media Coverage/People, Reuters, Variety/Shared widely/Themes of money, meaning, & morality

Festival Premiere (TIFF 2025)Viral clip of Ansari’s emotional speech/Thousands of shares/Human connection + authentic storytelling praised

Critics / Reviews/Flickering Myth, The Playlist, The Guardian/N/A/Praised for cast chemistry; pacing mixed

Sentiment Overview

Overall sentiment: positive.
Audiences appreciate the sincerity and humor blend, while media outlets highlight Reeves’s angelic role and Ansari’s heartfelt direction.
Conversation centers on themes of purpose, gratitude, and what truly makes a life successful — an emotional throughline that aligns with its title.

Takeaway

Good Fortune positions itself as a rare PG-13 supernatural comedy with heart.
If Lionsgate maintains buzz and leans on Reeves’s global appeal, a mid-case $18 M opening / $80 M domestic run is realistic — with upside if audiences connect to its life-after-death humor and optimism.

Final Word

AI doesn’t replace the magic of forecasting — it helps us see patterns faster so humans can make smarter, creative decisions.
The future of this industry is human-led, AI-supported.

Technology is the tool. People are the storytellers.

Actual: $6.1M

• Fell well below the AI low-end forecast.

🧠 Why the Forecast Missed

• Overestimated conversion: Although social engagement appeared healthy on paper, much of it was driven by celebrity buzz rather than intent-driven presales.

• Genre headwinds: Adult-targeted comedies in October have struggled to break out theatrically without major critical or cultural momentum.

• Competition & corridor: The Halloween horror corridor favored genre films like The Black Phone 2, leaving comedies under-prioritized by audiences.

• Lack of urgency: No “must-see now” factor. Positive but mild reviews didn’t fuel weekend demand.

🪄 Takeaway:
For comedies, social engagement ≠ ticket sales. AI forecast weighting needs to:

• Place less emphasis on trailer chatter alone.

• Factor in conversion-to-presale ratios.

• Adjust corridor expectations downward when competing against strong genre anchors (e.g., horror in October).