Keeper

Keeper (2025)

Distributor / Studio: NEON (USA)
Release Date (U.S./Canada): November 14, 2025 (Wide)
Genre / MPAA Rating / Language: Horror / R / English
Data Confidence: Low — early-stage indie-horror with limited tracking data and modest marketing visibility.

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S./Canada — Projected)

Opening Weekend Forecast (Projected):

• Low: ~$5 M

• Mid: ~$8 M

• High: ~$10 M

AI Midpoint Forecast: ≈ $8 M

Context & Assumptions:

• This is a relatively low-budget, single-location horror film (secluded cabin premise) directed by Osgood Perkins, known for more niche horror work.

• Release wide but in a competitive weekend alongside bigger titles (e.g., major studio films) so screen count may be decent, but marketing footprint is modest.

• Horror genre typically front-loads but also allows strong legs if audience response is good; but given indie scale, assume conservative performance.

• Assumes R-rating may limit younger demo; adult horror fans will be key.

Key assumptions: word‐of‐mouth is average (B- to B), horror curiosity drivers moderate, screen count ~2,000,+ but not enormous PLF push.

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross (Projected) + Canada

Total Domestic (Projected):

• Low: ~$15–20 M

• Mid: ~$25–30 M

• High: ~$35–40 M

Canada Estimate (Projected):

• Approx: ~$2.0–3.5 M

Rationale:

• A horror film of this type often sees a multiplier of ~2.5× to 4× its opening weekend, depending on legs and reviews. With an ~$8M OW midpoint, a ~3.0× multiplier yields ~$24M, aligning with our midpoint.

• Canada shares assumed ~8–12% of the domestic given horror film typical skew and market, hence ~$2–3 M.

• Given the indie/horror nature, it will likely see a sharp drop after the initial weekend unless breakout word-of-mouth occurs.

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve (Projected)

Weekend% Drop (Est.)Commentary

1–2 –55% Strong drop typical for horror unless big buzz; competition likely intense.

2–3 –45% If remaining screens hold and word-of-mouth is solid, drop may moderate

3–4 –40% Late-arriving audience, limited screen counts, but potential cult horror traction

4–5 –50% Normal erosion as new releases dominate and screens reduce.

Estimated Total Multiplier: ≈ 3.0× OW

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment - % of Audience - Comment

Male 13–24 - 22% - Younger horror fans, late-night shows, group outings.

Female 13–24 - 15% - Inclined toward thriller/horror if feedback is good.

Male 25–49 - 30% - Core adult horror demographic, especially for the director’s prior work.

Female 25–49 - 20% Slightly lower but still meaningful for adult horror.

50+ - 8% - Some older horror aficionados, but lesser share.

Family / Kids (<12) 5% - Minimal, R-rating and thematic tone limit younger child turnout.

Dominant demo: Male 18–49, with good secondary female 18–34 participation.
Niche/growth demo: Fans of atmospheric horror, indie horror community, horror-festival audiences.

5️⃣ Comparable Films

Film OW Total Domestic Drop 1-2 % Why Comparable

Longlegs (2024)~$9–10M†~$23–30M†~-50%Same director (Perkins), atmospheric horror, modest budget.

The Black Phone (2022) $16.2M$79.2M~-46%Horror with adult/teen skew, strong legs; ceiling scenario.

The Monkey (2025)~$7–8M†TBDDirector’s recent film; gives baseline for his commercial scale.

Hereditary (2018) $10.9M$44.0M~-47%Indie horror breakout, though higher critical buzz; moderate ceiling.

Insidious: Chapter 2 (2013) $40.5M$161.9M~-46%Big jump; provides upper bound for horror in wide release.

†Estimates.

• Ceiling Scenario: If film breaks out (strong reviews, social buzz), could approach ~$35–40M domestic.

• Floor Scenario: Could fall to ~$15–20M domestic if word-of-mouth weak and competition eats screen space.

6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot

• Trailer and teaser marketing: moderate – official “Keeper” trailers show up with teasers of the cabin horror premise.

• Social volume appears modest: horror-fan circles showing interest; mainstream awareness low compared to big franchises.

• Sentiment: Early indications are positive among horror aficionados, praising the director’s approach and lead actor Tatiana Maslany for her performance. But broader public sentiment is still uncertain.

Summary:
Online energy is niche-strong but mass-weak. The film may over-index among dedicated horror communities, but likely under-index for general multiplex audiences unless a breakout viral occurs.

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast (For Exhibitors)

Factor AI Estimate Rationale

Concession Spend per Capita ≈ $7.50 Horror film, adult skew, fewer families → slightly lower spend than big event films.

Staffing Intensity Index 2 (on scale 1–5) Moderate staffing; not a blockbuster opening, but steady business expected in evening/night slots.

Showtime Clustering Evening-heavy Horror primarily draws post-work/weekend evening audiences; limited matinees.

Premium Format Demand ~8–12% of gross. Some PLF screens (4DX, IMAX) might show it, but low marketing spend limits big premium push.

Cultural / Community Activation Medium Horror festivals, late-night screenings, and genre-club events can drive targeted turnout.

Operations Insight:

• Schedule primarily Fri/Sat nights, perhaps Thu previews in major markets.

• Offer mid-week late-night showings for core horror fans.

• Concession promo: “Late-night combo”, poster giveaways, horror-fan loyalty cards.

• Matinees / daytime screenings may underperform; allocate fewer showtimes daytimes and more in evening.

• Be prepared to down-screen or reduce showtimes by Week 2 if drop is steep.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table (Projected)

RangeOpening Weekend (US/Canada)Total DomesticCanadaWorldwide*

Low $5–6M/ $15–20M/$2.0–2.5M/ ~$40–60M

Mid $8–10M/$25–30M/$2.5–3.5M/~$70–90M

High $10–12M/$35–40M/$3.0–4.0M/~$110–140M

*Worldwide estimate: For horror wide releases, domestic often ~30–40% of global; used ~35% here for midpoint.

9️⃣ Executive Summary (Business Impact)

Forecast Positioning:

• Keeper is a strong-looking niche horror film: a known director, a credible lead actor, single-location cabin horror, which often gives good ROI. But the commercial scale is modest.

• It sits in a competitive release window (Nov 14) with major studio films, which may limit its screen count and audience share.

• My midpoint domestic forecast ~$25–30M reflects its status: not blockbuster, but solid performer for its genre and cost base.

Audience Behavior:

• Target demo: Adults 18–49 who are horror fans, especially those comfortable with “elevated” or psychological horror rather than PG-13 family fare.

• Expect a strong turnout in the opening weekend among core fans, with a drop expected in Week 2 unless word-of-mouth elevates it.

• Legs may be limited by competition and modest mainstream awareness, so front-loaded behavior should be expected.

Programming & Staffing Actions:

• Opening Weekend: Emphasize evening shows (Fri–Sat), consider Thu preview in major markets. Offer late-night screenings (10pm+).

• Weeks 2–3: Monitor drop; if sharp, reduce showtimes and focus on genre-strong houses or day-parts (midweek horror nights).

• Concessions & Premium Formats: Use horror-themed combos, late-night pricing deals, and possibly tie-in with local “haunted house” events or horror-club communities.

Marketing & Community Opportunities:

• Leverage horror-fan networks: midnight screenings, collectible posters, “cab in the woods” photo contest in social media.

• Partner with local horror conventions, fan clubs, and university film societies to build grassroots buzz.

• Use social media clips of unsettling moments or behind-the-scenes to provoke curiosity among horror-savvy viewers.

Risk & Upside:

• Risk: Lower awareness and heavy competition may limit screens and audience; a steep drop after OW could significantly reduce

• Upside: If the film “breaks out” among horror fans with a strong A-/B-CinemaScore and viral buzz, it could exceed expectations and reach the high scenario (~$35–40M domestic).

Actual:
👁️‍🗨️ Keeper — What Went Wrong?

AI Forecast: $9M
Actual: $2.2M
Delta: –76%

Why it collapsed:

1. Marketing Collapse
   NEON spent almost nothing on wide marketing. Visibility was extremely low.
   AI’s model assumed a standard mid-tier indie horror spend — not the near-zero push it actually got.

2. Longlegs Glow Didn’t Transfer
   We assumed Osgood Perkins hype would roll over from Longlegs.
   It did not. That audience stayed selective and skeptical.

3. Horror Fatigue Is Setting In
   After a massive year of:

   • Longlegs

   • Terrifier 3

   • Maxxxine

   • Smile 2

   • Nun 3 marketing
     Genre saturation is real.

4. Bad Release Date
   Dropped directly into a heavy commercial corridor (Running Man weekend) → terrible idea for an indie horror.

AI Model Adjustment:

• Reduce horror multipliers 14–18% when releasing outside September–October.

• Add a “Marketing Spend Index” that caps projections when spend < $5M.