Marty Supreme
MOVIES
12/15/20252 min read
🎬 Marty Supreme (2025)
Distributor / Studio: A24
Release Date (U.S./Canada): December 25, 2025
Genre / MPAA Rating: Sports Drama / Character Study / R (expected)
Director: Josh Safdie
Starring: Timothée Chalamet
Based On: Loosely inspired by real-life table tennis legend Marty Reisman
Data Confidence: Medium – prestige filmmaker + A-list star, but niche subject matter
🔢 Release Tier Classification (Important)
Assigned Tier: Tier 2 – Mid-Wide Prestige Release
Estimated Screen Count: 1,000–1,800 (with possible January expansion)
Reasoning:
A24 prestige positioning
Adult-skewing sports drama
Star-driven but not four-quadrant
Awards-season corridor release
1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S.) — Projected
Marty Supreme is not designed for a massive front-loaded opening. Its value is in adult discovery, reviews, and awards momentum.
Opening Weekend Forecast (3-Day)
Low: $7M
Mid (AI Midpoint): $11M
High: $16M
Why this range:
Chalamet provides awareness but not blockbuster urgency
Sports drama + niche subject (table tennis) limits casual turnout
Christmas Day openings suppress front-end but support long legs
A24 films often start modest and expand with WOM
2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross & Canada — Projected
Prestige sports dramas live or die by critical reception and awards chatter.
Total Domestic Projection
Low: $30M
Mid: $50M
High: $75M
Implied Multiplier: ~4.5×–6× opening weekend
🇨🇦 Canada Estimate
Adult prestige films typically deliver 7–9% of domestic.
Canada: $3.5M–$5M
3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve — Projected
Weekend % Drop Commentary
1 → 2 –15% to –25% Holiday corridor softens decline
2 → 3 –10% to –20% Reviews + adult discovery
3 → 4–20% to –30%Awards talk possible
4 → 5–25% to –35%January stabilization
Legs Outlook: Strong for an A24 adult drama if reviews land ≥80% RT.
4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)
Segment % Insight
Male 25–49 30% Sports + Safdie fans
Female 25–49 25% Chalamet-driven
Male 18–24 15% Younger cinephiles
Female 18–24 15% Prestige curiosity
50+ 15% Adult drama audience
Core Demo: Adults 25–49
Strength: Prestige + star appeal
Risk: Subject matter limits mainstream urgency
5️⃣ Comparable Films
Film Opening Weekend / Total Domestic Why Comparable
The Iron Claw (2023) $5M/$35M A24 sports biopic
King Richard (2021) $5.7M/$39M Sports biopic, adult-skewing
Uncut Gems (2019) $41M/$50M Safdie upside ceiling
Moneyball (2011) $19M/$75M Sports + adult crossover
Foxcatcher (2014) $4M/$12M Prestige sports drama floor
Creed (2015) $29M/ $109M Stretch comp (unlikely)
Stretch Case: Moneyball-style crossover
Floor Case: Foxcatcher-level niche appeal
6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot (Early)
Platform Read Commentary
TikTok Moderate Chalamet edits drive awareness
Instagram StrongStar-focused engagement
X Moderate Film Twitter interest
Reddit Moderate Safdie fan discussion
YouTube TBD Trailer reaction critical
Buzz Takeaway: Prestige curiosity > mass hype.
7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast (Exhibitors)
Factor Estimate Notes
Concession Spend $7.50–$8.50 Adult audience
Staffing Index 2.5 / 5 Even pacing
Showtime Pattern Evening-heavy Date-night skew
PLF Demand Very Low
Standard screens
Community Activation MediumQ&As, awards buzz
Exhibitor Insight:
Marty Supreme is ideal for steady evening programming, especially in urban and arthouse-friendly markets. Expect incremental growth rather than spikes.
8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table
Range Opening Weekend/Total Domestic/ Canada/ Worldwide*
Low $7M/$30M/$3M/ $65M
Mid $11M/$50M/$4M/$90M
High $16M/$75M/$5M/$130M
*Worldwide estimate assumes limited international breakout but strong festival-market play.
9️⃣ Executive Summary
Marty Supreme is positioned as a prestige, adult-skewing sports drama anchored by Timothée Chalamet and Josh Safdie’s reputation for intense character studies. The AI Box Office model forecasts a $11M opening weekend and a $50M domestic run, with meaningful upside if awards momentum and critical acclaim take hold.
This is not a front-loaded title — it’s a slow-burn performer that benefits from the holiday corridor and January legs.
For exhibitors, Marty Supreme is best treated as a high-quality counterprogramming asset, ideal for consistent evening attendance and awards-season relevance.
Actual TBD