November 21, 2025: The AI Box Office Forecast — Wicked: For Good, Rental Family & Sisu: Road to Revenge

🎬 Wicked: For Good (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Universal Pictures
Release Date: November 21, 2025
Genre / MPAA Rating: Musical / Fantasy / PG (Projected)
Data Confidence: High
Forecast Volatility: Moderate (large pre-sales but uncertain legs)

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S.) — Conservative Projection

AI Forecast Range (Conservative):

• Low: $115M

• Mid (AI Midpoint Forecast): $135M

• High: $165M

Why lower than earlier aggressive projections?

• Musical sequels are typically more front-loaded

• Thanksgiving corridor is competitive, not empty

• Hype is high, but repeat business is unsure

• Pre-sales don’t always translate 1:1 into walk-up attendance

• Part One had unusually strong legs, which we should not assume again

Notes:

• PLF / IMAX share remains strong (20–25%)

• Pre-sales indicate a huge fan surge, but legs are uncertain

• Friday will be massive; Sunday may soften faster than Part One

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross — Conservative Projection

Sequel multipliers for front-loaded fandom tend to fall around 3.0–3.3× OW (vs Part One’s ~4×).

AI Conservative Domestic Forecast

• Low: $350M

• Mid: $420M

• High: $500M

Canada Estimate (8–12% rule, adjusted down)

• $35M – $55M

Why reduced?

• Holiday competition (animated films, family titles, blockbusters)

• Potential decline in musical novelty vs Part One

• A slightly darker tone may limit matinee repeat viewing

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve

Weekend% Drop (Est.)Commentary

1 → 2–38%Bigger fan rush → more front-loaded; holiday still helps.

2 → 3–35%Post-Thanksgiving stabilization, strong for musicals.

3 → 4–32%Word-of-mouth & soundtrack help maintain December play.

Legs Estimate: ~3.1× OW (Conservative baseline)

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment% of AudienceComment

Female 13–2428–32%Core Fandom, TikTok-heavy

Female 25–4925–30%Strong repeat viewing potential

Male 13–2412–15%Dates, musical theatre fans

Male 25–4912–15%Parents + Broadway fans

50+8–10%Elder theatre audiences arrive later

Families10–15%Matinee-driven, strong in December

Drivers: F13–24 + F25–49
Legs: Families + adults returning in December
Underserved: Male-heavy demos

5️⃣ Comparable Films

FilmOWDomesticWhy Comparable

Wicked (2024)~$112M~$474MSame cast & corridor; excellent legs (likely softer for sequel)

Beauty & the Beast (2017)$174M$504MMusical event with broad demo appeal

Frozen II (2019)$130M$477MSequel surge but more front-loaded than Part One

The Greatest Showman$8.8M$174MFor leg potential only (not scale)

Les Misérables (2012)$27M$148MPrestige musical with holiday runway

6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot (Projected)

PlatformMomentumCommentary

YouTubeStrongTrailer views expected 40–80M range

TikTokVery StrongMassive audio usage; #WickedMovie expected to surge week of release

X (Twitter)PositiveAwards chatter + theatre fandom

RedditPositiveBox office forums calling it “Holiday Lock”

Overall Sentiment: Strong but not explosive
Virality Risk: High pre-release → lower post-release growth

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast

FactorEstimateNotes

Concession Per Capita $7.25–$8.25 Female/family skew; steady but not action-level

Staffing Intensity4.0/5 Pre-Thanksgiving spike + weekend matinees

Showtime Clustering Evenings + weekend matinees Family-heavy December

Premium Format Demand HighStrong IMAX & PLF interest early

Community Activation HighSing-alongs, group outings, theatre clubs

Operations Insight:
Expect major-event staffing for opening and Thanksgiving weekend, strong PLF demand, and a busy lobby driven by group outings and families. December legs will benefit from choir events, sing-alongs, and seasonal group marketing.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table — Conservative Baseline

Range Opening Weekend/Total Domestic/Canada/Worldwide*

Low$115M/$350M/$35M/$750M

Mid$135M/$420M/$45M/$900M

High$165M/$500M/$55M/$1.1B

*Worldwide includes moderate uncertainty due to variance in global musical appetite.

9️⃣ Executive Summary

Wicked: For Good stands as one of the most anticipated films of 2025, but the forecast is now adjusted to a safer and more conservative baseline. While pre-sales are record-breaking for a PG-rated film and the franchise commands tremendous goodwill, musicals — even major ones — can be highly front-loaded, and sequels often see more aggressive day-one turnout with softer legs.

With a $135M midpoint OW and $420M midpoint domestic, For Good is still positioned as a major holiday powerhouse, but not necessarily a runaway phenomenon. A $900M worldwide run is both realistic and responsible as a forecast baseline.

This conservative track protects against overestimation while still acknowledging the significant strength of the franchise and its audience.

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🎬 Rental Family (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Searchlight Pictures
Release Date (Domestic U.S.): November 21, 2025
Genre / MPAA Rating: Comedy-Drama / PG-13
Data Confidence: Medium
Forecast Volatility: High (niche film, adult-skewed, international co-production)

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S.) — Conservative Projection

AI Forecast Range (Domestic OW):

• Low: $3.5 M

• Mid (AI Midpoint Forecast): $6 M

• High: $9 M

Rationale:

• Despite strong reviews (96% on Rotten Tomatoes) and an Oscar-winning actor, Brendan Fraser attached, the film is more adult, international in tone (U.S./Japan) and lacks broad genre/popcorn tentpole appeal.

• Distributor Searchlight is stronger in specialty art/indie than mass-market event rollout.

• Adult-skew means fewer family matinees and fewer teen/popular-culture impulse visits.

• Competition in the November/holiday corridor is heavy.

• Hence, a conservative baseline captures a modest spread rather than a breakout event.

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross

Given the opening weekend estimate and the adult-drama/indie context, applying a conservative multiplier of ~3× to ~3.5× OW (rather than 4×-5× for event films).

AI Total Domestic Forecast:

• Low: $10.5 M (~3.0× Low OW)

• Mid: $18 M (~3.0× Mid OW)

• High: $27 M (~3.0× High OW)

Canada Estimate: (8-12% of U.S.)

• Low: ~$0.8 M

• Mid: ~$1.4 M

• High: ~$2.2 M

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve (Projected)

Weekend% Drop (Est.)Commentary

1 → 2–48%Strong front load by core adult/arthouse; drop off expected due to niche appeal.

2 → 3–42%Minimal family/social pickup; dependent on word-of-mouth among adult audience.

3 → 4–38%Some hold if reviews/award buzz strengthen.

Legs Estimate: ~3.0× Opening Weekend

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment% of AudienceComment

Male 13–244–6%Very low for this type of film.

Female 13–246–10% Some younger adult interest, but limited.

Male 25–4920–25%Key adult male demo for quality drama with Fraser.

Female 25–4930–35%Strongest demo: adult drama, emotional themes.

50+15–20% Mature audience likely attracted to quality film, foreign setting, performance.

Families / Kids5–8%Minimal family draw; more adult arthouse than family event.

Key Drivers: Female 25–49, Male 25–49, 50+
Legs drivers: Mature audience, positive word of mouth
Underserved: Teens, kids, mass family groups

5️⃣ Comparable Films

Film Opening Weekend Total Domestic Why Comparable

The Farewell (2019)~$7.3 M~$22.7 M Adult drama, cultural/international theme, strong reviews.

Minari (2020)~$2.8 M~$27 MArt/indie film with cross-cultural context, awards/leg strength.

Little Miss Sunshine (2006)~$6.5 M~$100 M Indie breakout; larger scope than Rental Family likely.

Lost in Translation (2003)~$4.6 M~$44.6 MAdult foreign-setting drama, niche to broader crossover.

These comps suggest a realistic range for “arthouse plus crossover adult” titles and support a modest opening and total for Rental Family.

6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot

PlatformEngagement / Views (Est.)SentimentCommentary

YouTube Trailer and clips likely 1–3 M views Positive/ Strong actor + festival buzz but limited mass viral push.

TikTokLow to moderate viral potentialMixed-to-PositiveEmotional dramedy less tailored to trending teen/audio memes.

X (Twitter)Discussion in film/critique circlesPositiveGood reviews (96% RT) but niche topic.

Rotten Tomatoes Small volume within arthouse and film-geek communitiesPositiveLimited mainstream/popcorn thread traction.

Momentum:

• Growing but modest: stronger among critics and adult film audiences than teen/pop culture mass market.

• Word of mouth and awards buzz could lift legs but unlikely to transform into massive social media explosion.

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast

Factor Estimate Notes

Concession Spend per Capita $5.50–$6.50 Adult drama – fewer families, fewer high-volume matinees.

Staffing Intensity (1–5)2.5 / 5Moderate release; not high-volume tentpole.

Showtime Clustering Evenings + select matinees Adult audience evenings; fewer weekend family rushes.

Premium Format Demand Low Film not positioned for big 3D/IMAX/PLF push.

Community Activation Moderate Film festivals, adult Q&A, cultural screenings more than mass events.

Operations Insight:
Exhibitors should treat Rental Family as a platform film: limited showtimes, targeted urban markets, adult audiences. Lobby/concessions will perform modestly; staffing and screen allocation should reflect a moderate scale. Nights and adult-oriented auditoriums are the priority, not massive weekend family matinees.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table — Conservative Baseline

Range/Opening Weekend/Total Domestic/Canada/Worldwide*

Low $3.5 M/$10.5 M~$0.8 M~$20 M

Mid $6 M/$18 M~$1.4 M~$35 M

High $9 M/$27 M~$2.2 M~$50 M

*Worldwide estimate carries high uncertainty given limited global mainstream appeal and niche adult context.

9️⃣ Executive Summary

Rental Family is a thoughtful, cross-cultural dramedy starring Brendan Fraser in a vulnerable lead role, set against the backdrop of an unusual Japanese “rental family” service. While review-critics are highly favorable (96% on Rotten Tomatoes) and the film boasts festival buzz, the theatrical performance should be approached with conservative expectations. The core audience is adult, the genre is niche rather than mass-market event, and distribution by Searchlight lends scale but not blockbuster muscle.

The conservative baseline—~$6 M opening, ~$18 M domestic total—reflects realistic uptake in major urban markets, limited family/teen outreach, and moderate word-of-mouth legs. Upside exists (to ~$27 M domestic) if the film expands into suburban markets, receives awards momentum, and finds a crossover uptick. However, exhibitors should plan screens and staffing around a modest platform run.

From an exhibition standpoint: focus on evening showtimes, adult-oriented screenings, festival-tie-ins, and markets with strong indie/arthouse appetite. Consider pairing with Q&A events, special foreign-film nights, and targeted engagement rather than broad multiplex saturation.

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🎬 Sisu: Road to Revenge (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Screen Gems via Sony Pictures Releasing
Release Date (Domestic U.S.): November 21, 2025
Genre / MPAA Rating: Action / War / R (Strong violence & gore)
Data Confidence: Medium
Forecast Volatility: High (cult sequel, niche appeal, R-rated)

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S.) — Conservative Projection

AI Forecast Range (Domestic OW):

• Low: $4.0 M

• Mid (AI Midpoint Forecast): $7.0 M

• High: $10.0 M

Rationale:

• The original Sisu (2022) opened domestically around ~$3.3 M and finished ~$7.3 M.

• This sequel has somewhat wider distribution but still remains R-rated, niche, and adult-skewing.

• Strong reviews (95% Rotten Tomatoes), but critical acclaim doesn’t always translate into mass box office.

• Competitive release corridor (holiday, big blockbusters) and smaller genre footprint.

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross

Given the adult action niche, R-rating, and sequel status, apply a modest multiplier of ~3× for realistic legs (vs event films, which might do higher).

AI Total Domestic Forecast:

• Low: $12 M (~3× Low OW)

• Mid: $21 M (~3× Mid OW)

• High: $30 M (~3× High OW)

Canada Estimate (8–12% rule):

• Low: ~$1.0 M

• Mid: ~$1.7 M

• High: ~$2.4 M

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve

Weekend% Drop (Est.)Commentary1 → 2–50%Front-loaded among action fans; steep drop expected.2 → 3–45%Limited family uptake; adult repeat modest.3 → 4–40%Some hold if word-of-mouth strong, but base is narrow.

Legs Estimate: ~3.0× Opening Weekend for mid scenario.

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment% of AudienceComment

Male 13–2418–22%Young action-fans, core genre crowd.

Female 13–248–12%Smaller share given R-rating & theme.

Male 25–4930–35%Primary demo: adult action moviegoers.

Female 25–4915–18%Secondary demo; less primary pull.

50+5-8%Limited due to intensity and rating.

Families / Kids<5%Minimal family appeal given R-rating & subject matter.

Key Drivers: Male 25–49, Male 13–24
Legs Drivers: Dedicated action fans, strong word-of-mouth among genre niche
Underserved: Large family/lower age demos, light entertainment audiences

5️⃣ Comparable Films

Film Opening Weekend Total Domestic Why Comparable

Sisu (2022)~$3.3 M~$7.3 MPrevious film same character/genre.

The Raid 2 (2015)~$4.1 M~$11.3 M Cult action sequel, niche appeal.

Nobody (2021)~$6.4 M~$57 M Mid-budget R-rated action that broke out somewhat.

John Wick: Chapter 2 (2017)~$29 M~$92 MLarger scale, action sequel; sets higher benchmark.

Atomic Blonde (2017)~$18.7 M~$51 MAction, R-rating, female-lead; niche crossover.

6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot

PlatformEngagement / Views (Est.)SentimentCommentary

YouTubeModerate (~2-5 M views) PositiveTrailer shows strong action set pieces; niche audience.

TikTokLow to moderate Mixed-to-Positive Action sequences may trend, but not broad teen viral.

X (Twitter) Moderate among genre & action communities Positive Cult following discussing hero & gore.

Reddit: Low volume, Positive Action/genre subs interested, but limited mainstream buzz.

Momentum:

• Solid within the action/genre community, but limited mainstream breakout.

• Higher risk: insufficient broader awareness or distribution may hamper size.

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast

Factor Estimate Notes

Concession Spend per Capita$6.00-$7.00 Adult audience, modest family presence.

Staffing Intensity (1–5)3.0 / 5Moderate release scale; not massive tentpole.

Showtime Clustering Evenings + Limited Late MatineesAdult skew; fewer family matinees.

Premium Format Demand Low to Moderate Some action fans in premium, but not major PLF Blockbuster community Activation

Moderate Genre events, midnight screenings, action-fan outreach; not broad family promo.

Operations Insight:
Exhibitors should position this as an adult action event rather than family/social outing. Showtimes should focus on peak evening slots, premium screens in select markets. Lobby/concession expectations should be modest compared to major tentpoles; staffing can be moderate. Use fan-events and genre-marketing to punch above typical size.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table — Conservative Baseline

RangeOpening WeekendTotal DomesticCanadaWorldwide*

Low$4.0 M$12 M~$1.0 M~$25 M

Mid$7.0 M$21 M~$1.7 M~$40 M

High$10.0 M$30 M~$2.4 M~$60 M

*Worldwide estimate labeled High-Uncertainty due to niche genre, R-rating, and varying international action appetites.

9️⃣ Executive Summary

Sisu: Road to Revenge arrives as a sequel to a cult-hit action film, with strong critical reception (95% RT) and a committed genre-fan base. However, given its R-rating, adult skew, and niche subject matter, we set a conservative baseline forecast: $7M opening weekend (midpoint) and ~$21M total domestic under typical conditions.

While the film has upside potential—especially if word-of-mouth is excellent and international markets support it—the base case treats it as a focused adult action title rather than a broad multiplex blockbuster. For exhibitors, the strategy should emphasise evening premium shows, targeted markets (those with strong action-fans and cult moviegoers), and moderated staffing and concession expectations.

Actual: TBD

🟢 Wicked: For Good (Universal)
AI Midpoint: $135M
Actual: $142.5M
Variance: +5.5%

Why it worked:
• Modeled sequel front-loading correctly
• Expected big Friday + softer Sunday
• Conservative multiplier prevented overestimation

What surprised us:
• Stronger Saturday family turnout
• Higher PLF/IMAX share
• TikTok audio surge in final 72 hours

Calibration added: +10% weight to F13–24 musical fandom in final-week tracking.

🟣 Rental Family (Searchlight)
AI Midpoint: $6M
Actual: $3.2M
Variance: –47%

Why it missed:
• Adult arthouse turnout softer than expected
• Overestimated Searchlight wide-release momentum
• Wicked pulled attention from adult female demos
• Platform-style audiences return slowly, not OW

Calibration added:
• Prestige dramas opening against tentpoles get a –35% OW correction
• Use only slow-burn indie comps, not crossover hits

🔴 Sisu: Road to Revenge (Sony)
AI Midpoint: $7M
Actual: $2.3M
Variance: –67%

Why it missed:
• Genre fandom didn’t convert to tickets
• R-rated niche action market is smaller than comps suggested
• Low marketing visibility
• Overshadowed by Wicked + Zootopia buzz

Calibration added:
• Cap niche R-rated cult sequels at $3.5–$5M OW unless proven otherwise
• Apply harsh penalties for low reach + foreign influence

📌 Overall Accuracy Ranking
🎯 Wicked: Excellent
⚠️ Rental Family: Overestimated
❌ Sisu: Major Overestimate