Now You See Me, Now You Don't

🎬 Now You See Me: Now You Don’t (2025)
Distributor / Studio: Lionsgate / Summit Entertainment
Release Date (Domestic U.S./Canada): November 14, 2025 (Wide)
Genre / MPAA Rating / Language: Crime–Heist Thriller, PG-13, English
Runtime: 112 minutes

Data Confidence: Medium – solid tracking ranges and clear comps, but nearly decade-long gap since the last film and heavy reliance on international play make domestic behavior somewhat volatile.

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S./Canada — Projected)

Release Tier: Wide, franchise threequel on >2,500 screens (Tier 1–2 hybrid).

Opening Weekend Forecast (Projected):

• Low: $12–14M

• Mid: $14–18M

• High: $18–22M

AI Midpoint Forecast: ≈ $16M opening weekend (Domestic U.S./Canada, 3-day).

Context & Assumptions

• Tracking from industry outlets is currently clustering around $13–18M, positioning the film as a solid but not explosive mid-wide opener.

• Franchise history:

  • Now You See Me (2013): $29.4M OW / $117.7M domestic.

  • Now You See Me 2 (2016): $22.4M OW / $65.1M domestic.
    Long gap + softened domestic market justify expectations below those peaks.

• Awareness is decent but not in tentpole range: multiple official and partner trailers in the low-to-mid single-digit millions of combined YouTube views, plus a CinemaCon push and a clever in-person stunt where Jesse Eisenberg’s surprise magic show doubled as a ticket giveaway.

• Competition frame: opens opposite The Running Man remake and NEON’s Keeper, one week before Wicked: For Good’s Thanksgiving corridor dominance and ahead of Zootopia 2 — so it’s likely silver/bronze for the weekend, not #1.

Key assumptions baked in:

• Wide release >2,500 screens.

• No major negative surprise in reviews (assumes mixed-to-positive critic response and decent audience scores).

• Marketing spend remains in that “mid-studio franchise” band, not upgraded to full-tentpole levels.

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross (Projected) + Canada

Total Domestic (Projected):

• Low: $40–50M

• Mid: $50–65M

• High: $65–80M

Implied domestic multiplier range ≈ 2.8× – 3.8× OW, with the AI midpoint multiplier ≈ 3.4× (i.e., ~$55M domestic on a ~$16M OW).

Canada Estimate (Projected):

• Range: $3.5–7.0M

• AI Midpoint: ≈ $5M (about 9% of domestic)

Rationale:

• The first film was quite leggy domestically (4.0× multiple); the second was still solid around 2.9× despite a more front-loaded launch and China-heavy performance.

• These movies historically over-index internationally (roughly 65–80% of global), with strong play in Europe and China. Domestic has always been the “smaller half” of the story, so a mid-50s domestic total still lines up with a healthy worldwide figure.

• 2025 marketplace: still volatile but improving; strong streaming re-discovery of the first two films on Netflix this year has warmed up the brand, which helps legs if word-of-mouth lands in the B+ / A– zone.

Front-loaded vs leggy:

• Expect more leggy than a horror sequel, less leggy than art-house prestige.

• Adults can show up over several weeks, especially if international buzz and Netflix catch-up drive late adopters into theaters.

• But Wicked and Zootopia 2 will divert a lot of casual and family traffic, especially from week 2 onward.

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve (Projected)

Based on a ~$16M OW and the current release calendar.

Weekend% Drop (Est.)Commentary

1–2 –47%Typical mid-franchise drop with big competition (Running Man hold, Keeper expansion, and Wicked previews on the horizon).

2–3 –45%Wicked: For Good and other family/holiday fare fully in play; heist thriller skews to evenings and core fans.

3–4 –40%If WOM is good, it should stabilize and benefit from counter-programming vs family-heavy slate.

4–5 –45%Normal erosion as premium screens and prime slots move to bigger holiday titles.

Estimated Total Multiplier: ≈ 3.2–3.5× OW (centered around 3.4×).

Key swing factor: If international buzz plus Netflix catch-up creates more “event-y” perception, you could see a slightly softer second-weekend drop (~-40%) and domestic nudging into the high 60s.

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment% of AudienceComment

Male 13–24 18% Drawn to slick heist action and franchise brand; some overlap with thriller/gamer demo.

Female 13–24 18% Cast appeal (Eisenberg, Greenblatt, Pike, Franco), social-friendly magic/heist vibes.

Male 25–49 28%Core demo: fans of the first two films, Ocean ’s-style capers, and Fleischer’s prior work (Venom, Zombieland).

Female 25–49 22%Date-night / group outing; Rosamund Pike and ensemble chemistry help.

50+ 9% Light but present, especially Morgan Freeman fans and general thriller crowd.

Family / Kids (<12) 5% Limited – magic angle attracts some tweens/younger siblings, but PG-13 heist framing keeps it mostly adult/teen.

Dominant demo: Adults 18–49, slight male skew but with meaningful female 18–34 participation (similar to Ocean’s 8 and the earlier NYSM films).

Niche growth areas:

• Urban moviegoers are seeking non-superhero “event” entertainment.

• International tourists/expats in big-city locations are familiar with the franchise from earlier overseas runs.

5️⃣ Comparable Films (Actuals)

Film Opening Weekend (US/Can)/ Total Domestic/ Drop 1–2 % (Approx.)/ Why Comparable

Now You See Me (2013) $29.4M$117.7M ~–35–40%First entry; magic-heist ensemble, PG-13, Lionsgate, strong legs & big overseas skew.

Now You See Me 2 (2016) $22.4M$65.1M ~–50%Direct franchise comp; softer domestic but huge intl, shows franchise decay and sequel front-loading.

Ocean’s 8 (2018)$41.6M$140.2M ~–53%Stylish heist ensemble with strong female skew; indicates ceiling for glossy, starry capers in modern market.

Focus (2015) $18.7M$53.9M ~–45%Mid-budget, star-driven con film; close to the tracking band and a good indicator of leg potential.

Logan Lucky (2017)$7.6M$27.8M –44%Lower-scale heist comedy; useful as a “floor” scenario for adult-aimed capers when marketing doesn’t fully land.

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (2025)$15.5M~TBD~Typical –50%Recent Lionsgate mid-level crime sequel performance; similar scale, not as four-quadrant but useful recency check.

• Ceiling Comp: Ocean’s 8 – if WOM overperforms and the cast/brand really click.

• Floor Comp: Somewhere between Logan Lucky and a softer-than-expected Focus scenario.

6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot

Campaign status: Active franchise revival push – trailers, featurettes, and clever experiential stunts.

PlatformEngagement / Views (Approx.)/ SentimentCommentary

YouTube Multiple official/partner trailers and featurettes across Lionsgate, IGN, RT, etc., collectively in the low–mid single-digit millions of views. Mostly Positive. Comments emphasize “glad the Horsemen are back” and praise for Rosamund Pike & Isla Fisher returning.

TikTok Hashtags around card tricks, illusion edits, and Jesse Eisenberg’s park stunt are generating steady but not explosive organic content. Positive / NicheStronger with magic/illusion creators and film TikTok than the general teen crowd.

X (Twitter) Medium-volume chatter around each trailer drop and CinemaCon showcase.Mixed–Positive Some skepticism about the late threequel + Fleischer, but overall fondness for the franchise’s “clever fun.”

Instagram / Facebook Standard studio roll-out with posters, character art, and behind-the-scenes clips from Abu Dhabi and Budapest. Generally Positive Strong engagement on cast posts (Pike, Greenblatt, Fisher) and location glamour.

Redditr/boxoffice tracking threads; some r/movies / r/magic crossover discussion. Cautiously Optimistic as a potential sleeper rather than a front-line hit; many expect international to do the heavy lifting.

Overall read:

• Online energy is “healthy mid-tier,” not a tentpole.

• Buzz slightly under-indexes vs the franchise’s global success, but revived interest via Netflix and thinkpiece coverage helps.

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast (For Exhibitors)

Factor AI Estimate / Rationale

Concession Spend per Capita≈ $8.25 /Adult-skewing PG-13 thriller; similar to other crime/heist films—above family animation, below superhero/PLF-driven tentpoles.

Staffing Intensity Index (1–5) 3 Busy but not chaos. Strongest on Fri/Sat 7–9pm shows, especially in cities with strong franchise awareness.

Showtime Clustering Evening-heavy, with limited matinee strength. Core demo is 18–49; aim for after-work / prime-time slots, with 1–2 matinees on weekends.

Premium Format Demand~12–18% of OW from PLF (where available.) Some PLF bookings thanks to heist spectacle & overseas locations, but will compete for screens with The Running Man and Wicked previews.

Cultural / Community Activation Medium No obvious diaspora hook, but strong magic/illusion and heist communities; good fit for promo tie-ins with local magicians, escape rooms, casinos.

➡ Operations Insight (Actionable)

• Staffing:

  • Boost staff on Fri/Sat prime (6:30–9:30pm) in Week 1; moderate bump for Thu previews if you’re pairing with earlier films in the franchise.

  • Week 2 staffing can be normalized unless early presales/word-of-mouth spike.

• Concessions:

  • Position as date-night / friend-group movie: upsell sharable combos (2 large drinks + large popcorn + candy).

  • Magic-themed promo items (e.g., branded playing cards, “vanishing” candy boxes) can punch above their weight if supplied.

• Programming:

  • In PLF houses, consider Thu/Fri/Sat PLF evenings in Week 1, then reassess once Wicked and other big titles arrive—don’t overcommit past Week 2.

  • 3–4 shows/day opening weekend in busy locations; 2–3 in smaller markets, weighted to evenings.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table (Projected)

RangeOpening Weekend (US/Canada)/Total DomesticCanada/Worldwide*

Low: $12–14M/$40–50M/$3.5–4.5M/$130–160M

Mid: $14–18M/$50–65M/$4.5–6.0M/$170–200M

High: $18–22/M$65–80M/$6.0–7.0M/$210–260M

*Worldwide estimates assume domestic ~25–30% of global, consistent with previous NYSM entries which heavily over-index internationally (especially in Europe and China), but with some caution that China is more competitive and less reliable than it was in 2013–2016.

9️⃣ Executive Summary (Business Impact)

Forecast Positioning

• Now You See Me: Now You Don’t is positioned as a mid-tier, internationally driven franchise threequel, not a domestic mega-tentpole.

• Tracking in the mid-teens, a decade-long gap since the last film, and a crowded November frame keep expectations modest, but this world has a proven global fanbase and strong streaming presence that can fuel legs.

• AI lands on an OW midpoint ≈ $16M and domestic midpoint ≈ $55M, assuming decent reviews and B+/A– cinema scores.

Audience Behavior

• Expect adult 18–49, slightly male-skewed, with strong date-night traffic and groups of friends looking for something fun but not franchise-superhero or kids’ animation.

• Performance is likely moderately front-loaded to the first two weekends but with better legs than horror or superhero sequels if WOM is positive.

Programming & Staffing Actions

• Opening Weekend:

  • Treat it as a solid counter-programmer:

    • 3–4 shows per day in your bigger houses, weighted to evenings.

    • 1–2 matinees per day on Sat/Sun for casual audiences.

  • Staff for a Level 3 weekend: busy evenings, but you don’t need “Marvel-level” coverage.

• Weeks 2–3:

  • After Wicked: For Good and kids fare arrive, Now You See Me becomes a smart secondary title:

    • Keep 2–3 shows/day in strong markets, especially Thurs–Sun.

    • Consider holding evening-only in smaller sites once PLF/holiday titles pick up steam.

Marketing & Community Opportunities

• Local magic tie-ins:

  • Partner with local magicians / magic shops for lobby mini-shows or “card-trick nights.”

  • Social posts: “Can you spot the trick?” short videos filmed in your lobby.

• Heist & puzzle culture:

  • Cross-promote with escape rooms, puzzle cafés, or trivia nights – e.g., ticket + escape-room discount bundle.

• Franchise catch-up:

  • Run double-feature nights or discounted rentals/streaming call-outs for the first two films leading into OW.

  • In Canada in particular, highlight the availability of the earlier films on Netflix to prime the pump.

Actual:
🎩 Now You See Me: Now You Don’t — What Went Right?

AI Forecast: $16M
Actual: $20.6M
Delta: +29%

Why it came in higher:

1. TikTok Heist Content Blew Up Late
   Sleight-of-hand edits and nostalgia clips boosted hype 72 hours pre-release.

2. Family & Date-Night Appeal Underestimated
   This was one of the few four-quadrant PG-13 options available.

3. Brand Is Weirdly Strong
   The original Now You See Me films have a huge streaming afterlife on:

   • Netflix

   • Amazon

   • Stan
     That “comfort rewatch” audience converted better than tracking implied.

4. Very Strong International Pull
   The domestic bump happened because Lionsgate leveraged global marketing and cast TikTok presence.

AI Model Adjustment:

• Increase “dormant franchise revival” multiplier for PG-13 heist films.

• Boost projections when streaming footprint is high in the 30 days prior to release.