Roofman

Roofman (2025)

AI-Structured Box Office Forecast & Social Media Engagement Report
Published: October 2025 | By The AI Box Office

🎬 Film Overview & Context

Title Roofman (2025)

Director Derek Cianfrance

Cast: Channing Tatum (Jeffrey Manchester), Kirsten Dunst, Ben Mendelsohn, LaKeith Stanfield, Peter Dinklage, Uzo Aduba, Juno Temple, others

Runtime126 minutes

Release / PremiereWorld premiere at TIFF, September 6, 2025; theatrical release Oct 10, 2025

Genre / Basis: Biographical crime drama; true-life story of Jeffrey Manchester, “Roofman”

1️⃣ Box Office Forecast

Opening Weekend Estimate (U.S. & Canada)

Based on current tracking and forecasts:

• Todd Thatcher suggests a modest ceiling, possibly ~$6 M to $10 M.

• BoxOfficeTheory puts Roofman in the range of $6 M – $11 M for the opening weekend in the 6-week tracking list.

AI Projection Scenario Estimate

Low~$4 M – $7 M

Mid~$8 M – $12 M

High~$13 M – $18 M+

Given modest buzz and niche appeal, mid case is likely the most realistic. Total Domestic Gross Projection

Assuming moderate legs and audience retention:

ScenarioEstimate

Low $15 M – $25 M

Mid$30 M – $45 M

High$50 M – $70 M+

To hit higher tiers, Roofman would need strong word-of-mouth and reach beyond core true-crime / biopic audiences.

Canadian & International Outlook

• Canada (8–12 %): in the mid-case, ~$2.5 M – $5 M

• International: limited upside likely, depending on film’s appeal in overseas biopic/festival circuits

Weekend 2 Drop Estimate

• Biopics/dramas often fall ~45%–60% in week 2

• If buzz is favorable: drop could soften to ~35%–50%

Comparables & Benchmarks

• It shares space with mid-tier biopics and prestige docs — it won’t have tentpole scale but can punch above expectation if reviews/festival launch help.

• Note: Some coverage frames Roofman as having awards buzz from TIFF premiere. ZAMM.COM+1

Strengths & Risks

Strengths / Upside

• TIFF premiere and early awards/industry buzz ZAMM.COM+1

• An established cast (Tatum, Dunst, etc.) helps draw interest

• True story foundation can attract documentary/biopic audiences

Risks / Constraints

• Niche appeal: true crime/biopic may not break into the mass market

• Limited marketing window for theatrical

• Must rely heavily on critical / festival reception

• Competition in October for audience share

2️⃣ Social Media Engagement & Buzz

Here’s what public metrics + observed trends show so far:

Platform / VenueReach / MetricsEngagement / BuzzSentiment / Trends

Trailer Views / YouTubeTrailer not publicly disclosed exact views in sources I found Comments/reactions in trailer threads Fans appear intrigued; visual campaign helping awareness

BoxOfficeTheory TrackingProjects Roofman opening at $6 M – $11 M in the tracking lineup Indicates early industry anticipation

Festival / Press / BuzzStrong press coverage from TIFF premiere, awards buzz in trade publications Social shares of reviews, TIFF quotesPositive narrative around direction, casting, and story

Community / Forums Discussion threads (reddit, film forums)Speculation, praise, concerns about tone/direction Mixed enthusiasm — core fans versus skeptics debating approach

Highlights & Interpretation

• Press / Festival Buzz: TIFF premiere coverage and awards buzz articles help elevate Roofman beyond just a box office play.

• Tracking / Forecasting Attention: Inclusion in tracking tables alongside tentpole films suggests industry interest.

• Social Media / Engagement: While explicit like / view counts are undisclosed in sources I found, the volume of articles, reviews, and social chatter around the film indicates a moderate buzz.

✅ Combined Outlook & Strategic Notes

Roofman is a high-concept biographical drama with festival prestige on its side. Its opening weekend likely lands in mid single-digit millions to low double digits, with total domestic in the $30 M – $45 M range in the mid case.

The film’s success will rely on:

1. Strong critical / awards reception to boost awareness

2. Word-of-mouth among cinephiles and true crime audiences

3. Effective festival & press strategy amplifying buzz beyond core niche

If done right, Roofman could outperform expectations as a prestige theatrical release with modest scale.

Actual: $8M

Why It Came In Lower

• Niche appeal: Despite cast (Tatum, Dunst), true-crime tone felt art-house, not mainstream thriller.

• TIFF buzz didn’t translate: Festival acclaim ≠ , commercial traction outside NY/LA.

• Limited screen count (≈ 1,800): Forecast assumed 2,500 + wide rollout.

• Marketing spend restrained: A24 targeted a critical audience rather than a broad push.
  ➡ Lesson: Model needs distribution width and marketing tier as explicit inputs for indie/true-crime titles.