Shelby Oaks
MOVIES
10/20/20252 min read
Shelby Oaks (2025)
Genre: Supernatural Horror / Mystery
Studio: NEON
U.S. Theatrical Release: October 24, 2025
Director: Chris Stuckmann
Cast: Camille Sullivan, Brendan Sexton III, Keith David
Notable: Most-funded horror project on Kickstarter, directed by a former YouTube critic.
📊 AI-Structured Box Office Report
1. Opening Weekend (Domestic)
Forecast Range: $4M – $10M
AI Midpoint Forecast: $7M
Rationale: Mid-budget original horror with strong niche support but limited mainstream awareness.
Community chatter (Reddit) clusters around $3M–$6M OW expectations.
2. Total Domestic Projection
Scenario Total Domestic
Low$12M
Mid$17M
High$23M
Horror multipliers typically run 2.5×–3.5× OW unless breakout WOM lifts results.
3. Canadian Gross
Scenario % of Domestic Canada Gross
Low 8%$1.4M
Mid 10%$1.7M
High 12%$2.0M
Based on genre performance and fan-base size.
4. Week 1 → Week 2 Forecast Drop
Expected Drop: –55% ±5 pts
Horror titles typically drop fast without exceptional word-of-mouth.
OW (Example)DropWeekend 2$7M–55%~$3.1M
A softer drop (e.g., –40%) could signal sleeper-hit potential.
📈 Comparable Titles
FilmOW/Total Domestic-Wk1–2 Drop-Why Comparable
The Black Phone (2022) $10.2M/$80.2M – 43% - Original horror, strong WOM
Talk to Me (2023) $20M/$48M – 49%- Indie horror, festival buzz
Evil Dead Rise (2023) $16.2M/$87.5M – 35% - Genre horror, wide release, recognizable IP
Smile (2022)$17.3M/$100.9M – 46%Modest OW → strong legs
Insidious: Chapter 4 $23.3M/$74.2M – 54%- Mid-budget sequel, similar horror window
Shelby Oaks differs from these because it’s an original concept, not an existing IP.
🧭 Competitive Landscape (Oct 24, 2025)
Competing titles: Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (biopic), Regretting You (romance), Chainsaw Man – Reze Arc (anime event).
Horror competition: Late-October market is crowded but ideal for genre visibility.
Screen Count: Expected to be lower than major horror franchises.
Marketing Hook: Kickstarter origin story, indie creator narrative, and genre-fan community.
🧮 AI Box Office Projection Summary
RangeOpening WeekendTotal DomesticLow$4M$12MMid$7M$17MHigh$10M$23M
Budget: ~$1.4M–$2.8M (production estimate)
Upside: Niche fan momentum + Halloween window
Risk: No major IP to guarantee broad turnout.
📱 Social Media Engagement Snapshot (as of Oct 20, 2025)
PlatformViews / ReachBuzz Highlights/Sentiment / Trend
YouTube 3.5M–4M+ views / Red-Band trailer driving strong horror-fan conversation - Positive, high engagement
TikTokEarly hashtag activity#ShelbyOaks #ParanormalParanoids; jump-scare reactions, trailer edits/ Early adoption, niche trending
Instagram100Ks+ trailer views Found-footage horror aesthetics praised; “creepy small-town vibe” Positive, horror community
Facebook Trailer shares in fan groups/ Genre horror discussions about “found footage angle” and Mike Flanagan producing/ Moderate genre amplification
Reddit Active on r/horror, r/moviesTalk about directors’ / YouTube roots and gore/practical FX. Mixed-positive, engaged fans
🔥 Key Viral Drivers
Creator backstory: Stuckmann’s transition from YouTube to directing.
Kickstarter record: Most-funded horror film campaign.
Practical effects + Red-Band trailer: Appealing to genre purists.
Release date: Ideal positioning for Halloween horror audiences.
🧠 Analyst Takeaway
Shelby Oaks sits in the indie horror sweet spot: a modest budget, engaged fan community, and a genre-friendly release window.
It likely won’t reach tentpole levels, but a $7M opening with solid niche legs is achievable.
Success depends heavily on reviews and horror-fan WOM.
Instagram and YouTube are carrying early buzz, while TikTok and Reddit provide organic niche momentum.
📝 Quick Links
📰 Cinemablend | Variety | Reddit Threads
🧮 Final Forecast Snapshot
Metric Projection
Opening Weekend$7M (midpoint)
Total Domestic~$17M (midpoint)
Canada Gross$1.5M–$2.0M
Week 2 Drop Forecast–55% ± 5 pts
Viral Trend Status Moderate → High in horror niche
Actual: TBD