Song Sung Blue

🎬 Song Sung Blue (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Focus Features
Release Date (U.S./Canada): 2025 (TBD)
Genre / MPAA Rating: Music Biopic / Drama / PG-13 (expected)
Starring: Hugh Jackman, Kate Hudson
Based On: The life and music of Neil Diamond
Data Confidence: Medium–High (major star power + classic catalog, but biopic volatility)

🔢 Release Tier Classification

Tier 2 – Mid-Wide Release
Estimated Screen Count: 1,500–2,500

Why Tier 2:

• Adult-skewing music biopic

• Massive catalog recognition, but not four-quadrant youth-driven

• Prestige + mainstream crossover potential

• Awards-corridor friendly

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S.) — Projected

Music biopics tend to open moderately and grow through WOM, especially with older audiences.

Opening Weekend Forecast (3-Day)

• Low: $12M

• Mid (AI Midpoint): $18M

• High: $25M

Context:

• Hugh Jackman adds crossover appeal beyond the core Neil Diamond fanbase

• Older-skewing audience tempers opening urgency

• Strong date-night and matinee mix rather than late-night spikes

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross & Canada — Projected

Music biopics often generate strong legs if performances and nostalgia connect.

Total Domestic Projection

• Low: $45M

• Mid: $70M

• High: $105M

Implied Multiplier: ~3.8×–4.5× opening weekend

🇨🇦 Canada Estimate

Music biopics generally land 8–10% of domestic.

• Canada: $6M–$9M

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve — Projected

Weekend% Drop Commentary

1 → 2 –25% to –35% Adult discovery phase

2 → 3 –20% to –30%WOM-driven growth

3 → 4 –30% to –40%Stabilization

4 → 5–35% to –45%Normal genre fade

Legs Outlook: Solid if performances are praised; older demos favor steadiness.

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Snapshot (AI Estimate)

• Core: Adults 35–64

• Secondary: Couples 25–49, music fans

• Strength: Nostalgia + live-performance appeal

• Risk: Younger audiences less engaged

5️⃣ Comparable Films

Film Opening Weekend/ Total Domestic Why Comparable

Bohemian Rhapsody $51M/ $216M Upper-bound music biopic

Rocketman $25M/$96M Adult-skewing Elton John biopic

Elvis $31M/$151M Strong nostalgia crossover

A Star Is Born $42M/$215M Music-driven adult event

Respect $8M/$24M Floor case

6️⃣ AI Operations Impact (Exhibitors)

• Concession Spend: $7.50–$8.50

• Staffing Intensity: 3 / 5

• Showtime Pattern: Evening + weekend matinees

• PLF Demand: Low

• Community Activation: High (music fans, older demos)

Exhibitor Insight:
Strong date-night and matinee programming play. Expect steadier weekday attendance than youth-driven films.

7️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table

Range Opening Weekend / Total Domestic / Canada / Worldwide*

Low $12M/$45M/$5M/$85M

Mid $18M/$70M/$7M/$130M

High $25M/$105M/$9M/$180M

🎯 Executive Summary

Song Sung Blue is positioned as a reliable Tier 2 music biopic, driven by iconic songs, strong star power, and adult audiences. The AI Box Office model forecasts an $18M opening weekend and a $70M domestic run, with upside if performances resonate and nostalgia fuels repeat business.

This is a legs-driven title, not a front-loaded one — best programmed for consistency, not spikes.

Actual TBD