Soul On Fire

Soul on Fire (2025)

AI-Structured Box Office Forecast & Social Media Engagement Report
Published: October 2025 | By The AI Box Office

🎬 Film Snapshot & Context

Detail Info

TitleSoul on Fire (2025)

Release DateOctober 10, 2025 (U.S. & Canada)

Genre / Premise: Biographical drama based on John O’Leary’s true story: survival, faith, recovery, and inspiration

CastJoel Courtney (John O’Leary), William H. Macy (Jack Buck), John Corbett (Dennis O’Leary), Stéphanie Szostak, Masey McLain, others

Distributor Sony Pictures / Affirm Films

📈 Box Office Forecast

Opening Weekend (U.S. & Canada)

BoxOfficeTheory includes Soul on Fire in its 6-week tracking list:

• Low tracking: $4 M

• High tracking: $8 M

• Pinpoint Forecast: $6 M

AI Projection (Opening Weekend):

ScenarioEstimate

Low $3 M – $5 M

Mid$5.5 M – $8 M

High$9 M – $12 M+

Given tracking sits at ~$6 M, the mid-case is the most probable in current conditions.

Total Domestic Gross Estimate

Assuming good word-of-mouth and stable retention (typical of inspirational/biographical dramas):

ScenarioEstimate

Low$12 M – $20 M

Mid$25 M – $40 M

High$45 M – $60 M+

If the film resonates with faith-based audiences, community screenings, and outreach, it could push toward the high side.

Canadian & International Estimates

• Canada (8–12 %) of domestic:
   Mid-case → ~$2 M – $5 M

• International: Limited general crossover expected, though faith / inspirational markets could boost returns in Latin America, parts of Europe, and religious communities abroad.

Weekend 1 → Weekend 2 Drop Estimate

• Typical inspirational / drama films: 40%–60% drop

• If positive word-of-mouth holds: it could soften to 30%–45%

Comparable / Benchmark Films

Some films to benchmark against:

• Inspirational / faith dramas with moderate box office

• Biographical dramas with emotional core and community outreach

• Films with limited marketing but strong word-of-mouth and a targeted audience

These comparators suggest Soul on Fire has upside in its niche, but requires strong audience connection and messaging.

🧮 AI Projection Table (Summary)

Range Opening Weekend/Total Domestic

Low $3 M – $5 M/$12 M – $20 M

Mid $5.5 M – $8 M/$25 M – $40 M

High$9 M – $12 M+$45 M – $60 M+

📢 Social Media Engagement & Buzz Report

Here’s what public metrics, social signals, and observed trends suggest so far:

Platform / MetricReach / ObservationsEngagement / BuzzSentiment & Trends

YouTube / Trailer Official trailer posted (In Theaters Oct 10) YouTubeLikes, comments (reaction threads)Early interest, emotional response

Facebook / Social Pages Soul on Fire Movie page: ~36,332 likes; ~105,317 people talking about it FacebookShares, posts on community pagesEngagement from faith and inspirational circles

Press / Articles Coverage as inspiring true story, faith/community angle, Social shares of news articlesPositive framing, emotional tone

Community / ForumsEncouragement posts, anticipation threadsComments, speculationSentiment leans hopeful, emotional, faith-driven

Highlights & Interpretation

• The trailer is generating visible engagement and emotional reaction from those who follow inspirational/faith-based film content.

• Facebook audience metrics show a base of followers and ongoing conversations, especially in faith and motivational communities.

• Media articles are positioning it as a story of hope, redemption, and faith, which aligns with the promotional strategy.

• Community engagement suggests that Soul on Fire is resonating among niche audiences before wide release.

🔍 Sentiment, Themes & Trends

Positive Sentiment / Narrative

• Emphasis on survival, faith, community, and miracles

• Emotional storytelling and redemption arcs are key appeals

• Many supporters are sharing personal stories of inspiration in relation to the film’s message

Caution / Watch Areas

• Mainstream audiences may view it as niche / faith-driven

• Marketing must balance inspirational messaging with broader film appeal

• The emotional/dramatic tone must deliver on expectations

✅ Final Take & Strategic Notes

Soul on Fire enters the marketplace with emotional depth, built-in niche appeal, and a story with inherent sentimental power. Based on current tracking, an opening in the $5.5 M – $8 M range is realistic, with a mid-case domestic gross around $25 M – $40 M.

Its success will depend on:

1. Faith-based & community outreach (churches, group screenings)

2. Strong emotional word-of-mouth

3. Marketing that bridges niche to general audience

If performed well, Soul on Fire could punch above expectations in its niche, delivering meaningful returns both financially and impact-wise.

Actual: $3M

Why It Came In Lower

• Minimal marketing reach: Church and faith groups weren’t activated nationally; no grass-roots push.

• Competition from bigger titles: Faith-audience overlap with older demos pulled to Roofman and Last Rites.

• Brand new IP: No pre-awareness or recognizable source material.
  ➡ Lesson: Model over-relied on genre comparables (I Can Only Imagine, Heaven Is for Real) without accounting for marketing budget and church network strength.