THE DECEMBER 2026 WAR

🗓️ THE DECEMBER 2026 WAR — THREE-FILM

"Dunesday" + Christmas. The Most Dangerous Release Corridor in Modern Exhibition History.

Report Date: March 24, 2026 | Data Confidence: MEDIUM-HIGH across all three

The industry nickname is already locked in. The Jumanji move strategically shifts the film to hit theaters after the launches of Dune 3 and Avengers: Doomsday on December 18 — a box office collision colloquially called "Dunesday." And as of today's Variety report, Disney reiterated at its annual shareholders meeting on March 18 that Doomsday will hold its December release date.

1️⃣ AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY — Dec 18

Director: The Russo Brothers | Cast: RDJ (Doctor Doom), Chris Evans, Hemsworth, Pascal, Stewart, McKellen, Channing Tatum + kitchen sink of Marvel/X-Men

The core tension: Dune: Part Three will have exclusive use of all IMAX screens in the United States when it opens on December 18. Avengers: Doomsday, on the other hand, will suffer tremendously without IMAX. This is now the second Marvel film in 2026 locked out of US IMAX — Spider-Man: Brand New Day was the first.

The franchise floor: Endgame opened to a jaw-dropping $357.1 million domestically, a figure Doomsday is certainly going to fall short of. But Doomsday is still expected to be the highest-grossing film of 2026.

Calibration applied:

• 🚨 No US IMAX = –$25M to –$35M off domestic OW ceiling (same penalty applied to Spider-Man)

• ⚠️ MCU fatigue penalty = –15% vs. Endgame-era comps

• ✅ RDJ return as Doctor Doom = massive nostalgia multiplier

• ✅ X-Men + Avengers crossover = broadest possible audience pool

• ✅ Polymarket prediction markets currently put Doomsday at 78% chance of the biggest OW of 2026

Range Opening Weekend (Domestic)

Low $160M

Mid $210M

High $265M

Canada (~10%) ~$21M

Exhibition note: The two films will share the spoils of the non-IMAX PLFs — Dolby, ScreenX, and standard premium large format. Push Dolby Atmos aggressively for Doomsday. Doctor Doom will have to settle for Dolby, but that's still premium revenue.

2️⃣ DUNE: PART THREE — Dec 18

Director: Denis Villeneuve | Cast: Chalamet, Zendaya, Robert Pattinson, Florence Pugh, Anya Taylor-Joy, Momoa, Bardem, Brolin, Ferguson

The trajectory: Dune: Part One earned $410 million globally while playing simultaneously on HBO Max; Part Two surged to $714 million, proving the franchise's theatrical pull when audiences were asked to show up. Part Three has no streaming day-and-date headwind.

The IMAX advantage: Dune: Part Three has the benefit of IMAX, where it'll run exclusively for three weeks since director Denis Villeneuve shot the film with the company's cameras. Variety This is the most significant premium format advantage of the year — three full weeks of IMAX exclusivity heading into Christmas and New Year's.

Calibration applied:

• ✅ Full IMAX exclusive = +$20M to +$30M OW premium

• ✅ Franchise trajectory is UP — Part Two nearly doubled Part One

• ✅ Oscar season positioning; prestige film with massive spectacle

• ✅ RDJ and Chalamet publicly coined "Dunesday" together = free cultural marketing

• ⚠️ Shares Dec 18 with Doomsday — male-skewing audiences overlap significantly

• ⚠️ Not quite four-quad; families and kids are less likely to cross over

Range Opening Weekend (Domestic)

Low $85M

Mid $115M

High $160M

Canada (~10%) ~$11.5M

Exhibition note: If "Barbenheimer" could power to the fourth-biggest collective weekend in box office history with $300M, "Dunesday" should have no trouble cementing its place among the top three. The Dune/Doomsday combined Dec 18 weekend could be the single biggest exhibition weekend since Endgame. Reserve every IMAX screen for Dune for a minimum of three weeks — this is non-negotiable.

3️⃣ JUMANJI 3 — Dec 25 (MOVED TODAY)

Director: Jake Kasdan | Cast: Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Karen Gillan, Danny DeVito, Nick Jonas, Lamorne Morris, Rhys Darby

The franchise floor: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle earned over $960 million worldwide. Jumanji: The Next Level grossed over $800 million worldwide. Variety Both launched in the December corridor. This is the final chapter — Hart has said it brings his and Johnson's relationship full-circle.

Why Dec 25 is smart: Sony just bought itself a clean Christmas Day launch with no competition from the Dunesday chaos. Families who saw Doomsday and Dune the week before now have a fresh option for Christmas Day itself. The holiday corridor through New Year's is wide open for Jumanji to build legs.

Calibration applied:

• ✅ Christmas Day launch historically = massive family audience; parents take kids, grandparents come along

• ✅ Avoids direct Dunesday competition entirely — different audience to Doomsday/Dune anyway

• ✅ Final chapter marketing hook ("last ride") drives urgency

• ✅ IMAX transition from Dune likely begins week 3 (Jan 8+) — Jumanji can pick up premium screens as Dune exits

• ⚠️ Still filming as of late 2025 — no trailer yet as of today

• ⚠️ 7-year gap since The Next Level; franchise nostalgia has a half-life

Range Opening Weekend (Domestic)

Low$45M

Mid$65M

High$90M

Canada (~10%)~$6.5M

Note: Christmas Day 5-day OW could add 40–50% to the 3-day figure — Jumanji's true holiday haul will likely be measured over the full 5-day frame.

🎯 THE BIG QUESTION: WHO MOVES — IF ANYONE?

Based on everything out there right now, here is the AI Box Office Analyst's read:

Avengers: Doomsday — NOT MOVING. Confirmed.

Disney reiterated at its annual shareholders meeting on March 18 that Doomsday will hold its December release date. Disney has a countdown livestream running. They are not blinking. The no-IMAX situation hurts but does not kill the film — there are enough standard and Dolby screens to mount a massive opening.

Dune: Part Three — NOT MOVING. Extremely unlikely.

Warner Bros. has publicly planted its flag with a poster declaring Dec 18. Although Dune 3 was first to stake out the prime pre-Christmas release date, Doomsday has the leverage — early tracking has been strong and Doomsday is widely predicted to be the year's highest-grossing release. But Dune has IMAX locked. That's leverage Warner Bros. will not surrender. They're staying.

Jumanji 3 — ALREADY MOVED. To Dec 25. Today.

Sony just made the smartest call of the three studios. Rather than open Dec 11 and get swamped by Dunesday awareness a week later, they've slid to Christmas Day and claimed the family holiday crown. The move gives them a clean lane, a massive built-in audience, and the potential to absorb premium screens as Dune's IMAX exclusivity expires heading into January.

🏆 EXHIBITION STRATEGY SUMMARY — DECEMBER 2026

Weekend Screen Strategy

Dec 18–21 IMAX = Dune exclusively. Dolby/PLF split between Dune and Doomsday. Standard screens: both films equally. Staff for the biggest exhibition weekend since 2019.

Dec 25–28 Jumanji 3 Christmas launch. Add screens for Jumanji. Doomsday and Dune hold on remaining PLF. Holiday legs period begins.

Jan 1–4 New Year's stretch. All three films in active play. Monitor Dune IMAX exclusivity expiry — IMAX begins transitioning to Doomsday or Jumanji by week 3.

The bottom line for Canadian indie exhibitors: December 2026 is the richest single month of the year. Three films, three audiences, three revenue streams. Dune owns IMAX. Doomsday owns Dolby and volume. Jumanji owns Christmas families. Book all three, staff accordingly, and celebrate the fact that for once the studios have handed you volume exactly when you need it.