The Housemaid

🎬 The Housemaid (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Lionsgate
Release Date (U.S./Canada): December 25, 2025
Genre / MPAA Rating: Psychological Thriller / Suspense / R (expected)
Based On: Bestselling novel by Freida McFadden
Starring: Sydney Sweeney, Amanda Seyfried
Data Confidence: Medium (strong source material + stars, but genre volatility)

Release Tier: Tier 2 – Mid-Wide (1,500–2,500 screens)

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S.) — Projected

The Housemaid is positioned as a female-skewing psychological thriller, counterprogramming the Christmas corridor dominated by tentpoles and family films.

Opening Weekend Forecast (3-Day)

• Low: $14M

• Mid (AI Midpoint): $20M

• High: $27M

Why this range:

• Huge built-in readership from McFadden’s novel (strong BookTok crossover)

• Sydney Sweeney continues to drive young adult awareness

• Christmas Day openings are traditionally muted but leggy

• Thriller genre is more about WOM than front-loaded demand

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross & Canada — Projected

This type of adult thriller often performs best after opening, benefiting from holiday weekdays and January legs.

Total Domestic Projection

• Low: $45M

• Mid: $65M

• High: $90M

Implied Multiplier: ~3.2×–4.5× opening weekend

🇨🇦 Canada Estimate

Adult thrillers usually land 8–10% of domestic.

• Canada: $5M–$7M

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve — Projected

Weekend% DropCommentary

1 → 2 –25% to –35%Christmas corridor softens decline

2 → 3 –20% to –30%WOM-driven adult discovery

3 → 4–30% to –40%January normalization

4 → 5–35% to –45%Genre fade

Legs Outlook: Better-than-average for a thriller if reviews land solidly.

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment % Insight

Female 18–34 35%Core BookTok + Sweeney audience

Female 35–54 25%Domestic thriller readership

Male 18–34 15% Secondary genre audience

Male 35–54 15%Date-night + thriller fans

55+ 10%Holiday adult counterprogramming

Core Demo: Women 18–49
Strength: Female-driven suspense stories have overperformed expectations recently
Risk: If marketing leans too “prestige,” the younger demo may soften

5️⃣ Comparable Films

Film Opening Weekend/Total Domestic/ Why Comparable

Gone Girl (2014) $37M/$167M Upper-bound psychological thriller

The Girl on the Train (2016) $24M/$75M Book adaptation thriller

Where the Crawdads Sing (2022) $17M/$95M Female-skewing literary adaptation

A Simple Favor (2018) $16M/$53M Stylish domestic thriller

Don’t Worry Darling (2022)$19M/$88M Star-driven suspense

The Night House (2021)$7M/$15M Genre floor case

Stretch Case: Gone Girl–lite WOM breakout
Floor Case: Standard adult thriller fade

6️⃣ Social Media & Awareness Snapshot (Early)

Platform Read Commentary

TikTok Strong Book Tok readers driving awareness

Instagram Strong Star-driven engagement

YouTube Moderate Trailer performance will be key

Reddit Moderate Thriller speculation threads

X Low–Moderate not discourse-heavy

Buzz Takeaway: Book-first awareness with strong female momentum.

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast (Exhibitors)

Factor Estimate Notes

Concession Spend $7.25–$8.25 Adult audience

Staffing Index 3 / 5 Evenly distributed

Showtime Pattern Evening-heavy Date-night driven

PLF Demand Low Standard formats are sufficient

Community Activation: Medium Book clubs, ladies’ night promos

Exhibitor Insight:
This is ideal adult counterprogramming. Schedule strong evening slots, especially post-Christmas, and consider book-club tie-ins or women-focused promo nights.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table

Range Opening Weekend / Total Domestic/ Canada /Worldwide*

Low $14M/$45M/$4M/$85M

Mid $20M/$65M/$6M/$120M

High$27M$90M$7M$160M

*Worldwide skew assumes solid international adult-thriller appeal but no breakout China play.

9️⃣ Executive Summary

The Housemaid is shaping up as a strong female-driven thriller positioned perfectly for holiday counterprogramming. With a major bestselling novel, two high-profile leads, and BookTok momentum, the AI Box Office model forecasts a $20M opening weekend and a $65M domestic total, with upside if WOM mirrors past book-to-film successes.

This is not a front-loaded title — its value lies in steady discovery, adult audiences, and January legs.

For exhibitors, The Housemaid is a smart programming balance piece: reliable, efficient, and likely to outperform expectations if reviews land favorably.

Actual TBD