The Running Man

The Running Man (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Paramount Pictures / Genre Films-Complete Fiction
Release Date (U.S./Canada): November 14, 2025 (wide)
Genre / MPAA Rating / Language: Dystopian Action Thriller / PG-13 / English
Data Confidence: Medium — good known details (budget, release date, director, talent) but still an upcoming release with uncertain audience response.

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S./Canada — Projected)

Opening Weekend Forecast (Projected):

• Low: $28–32 M

• Mid: $32–40 M

• High: $40–50 M
  AI Midpoint Forecast: ≈ $36 M

Context & Assumptions:

• With a budget of ~$110 M and a major director Edgar Wright, attached, this is positioned as a tentpole wide release.

• Although some tracking sites show much lower (~$19–28 M) for opening, other forecast services are more bullish (e.g., $40–50 M).

• Franchise/IP strength: Based on Stephen King novel; remake of the 1987 film. A known brand helps.

• Risks: Glen Powell isn’t yet proven as big franchise lead; November competition likely heavy; the dystopian tone may limit some family audience.

• Assumes wide release (~3000+ screens) and moderate to high marketing push in U.S./Canada.

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross (Projected) + Canada

Total Domestic (Projected):

• Low: $90–110 M

• Mid: $110–140 M

• High: $140–180 M

Canada Estimate (Projected):

• Approx: $9–14 M (≈8-10 % of domestic)

Rationale:

• If the opening is ~$36 M and the film has moderate legs (multiplier ~3.0–4.0×), the mid-case would land in the ~$110–140 M domestic range.

• The dystopian/action genre tends to front-load, but with strong visuals and global appeal, there’s potential for a ~3.5× multiplier.

• Canada share is estimated at ~8-10% given adult+action appeal and typical marketplace behaviour.

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve (Projected)

Weekend: % Drop (Est.)-Commentary

1–2: –48%- Strong first weekend, but heavy new competition expected in the second weekend (holiday titles).

2–3: –45%- Continues adult/action skew; drop hulled by streaming catch-up and next-week releases.

3–4: –40% - If word-of-mouth is good, could stabilize a bit.

4–5: –50% - Typical slip as premium formats shrink and bigger holiday films dominate.

Estimated Total Multiplier: ≈ 3.0–3.5× Opening Weekend
Thus for mid case ~$36 M OW × ~3.3× ≈ ~$120 M domestic.

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment % of Audience - Comment

Male 13–24 17% - Younger action/thriller seekers, fans of gaming/game-show tropes.

Female 13–24 13% - Some participation via ensemble cast / social media lead.

Male 25–49 30% - Core demo: action-thriller, big star appeal, adult skew.

Female 25–49 25% - Date nights, ensemble cast appeal (William H. Macy, Lee Pace, etc.).50+10%Some legacy audience, Stephen King fans.

Family / Kids (<12) 5% - Limited; dystopian tone not primary family fare.

Dominant demo: Men 18–49, with solid female 25–49 component.
Growth/Niche: Streaming-savvy adults, fans of King’s dystopian fiction, and event moviegoers seeking spectacle.

5️⃣ Comparable Films (5–8)

Film OW Total Domestic Drop 1-2 % Why Comparable

The Running Man (1987)$8.1 M$38.1 M~–40%Same title/source; helpful baseline.

The Long Walk (2025)~$11.7 M*TBD Recent King dystopian adaptation; lower scale.

Ready Player One (2018)$41.1 M$137.8 M~–50%Big-budget adult sci-fi, strong visuals & IP.

The Hunger Games: The Ballad… (2023)$90.8 M$255.6 M~–45%Franchise adult-skewing spectacle; ceiling scenario.

Bullet Train (2022)$30.1 M$100.9 M~–51%Adult action film not based on legacy IP; mid-tier comparable.

*Estimate.

• Ceiling scenario: If the film connects strongly with mainstream audiences, OW could hit ~$40–50 M and total ~$180 M+.

• Floor scenario: If marketing/messaging underwhelms or competition steals thunder, OW ~$28–30 M, total domestic ~$90–100 M.

6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot

Platform - Engagement / Views Sentiment Commentary

YouTube - Trailer released July 1, 2025; moderate view count (~several million). Positive-mixed Trailer shows slick action + satire; buzz is good but not viral-level.

TikTok influencer tie-ins (e.g., Glen Powell with Ashton Hall). Niche trending, More among action fans/young adults than the mass teen crowd.

X (Twitter) Moderate discussion tracking “Wright + Powell” combo Mixed–optimistic. - Many fans are watching to see if Wright delivers big-budget action.

Instagram/FB Cast/production posts strong (Powell, Brolin, Wright). Positive - Good photo/social engagement amongst engaged moviegoers.

Redditr/boxoffice threads tracking opening projections; some skepticism about star power. Cautiously optimistic, Many are comparing to big action-IP beasts; lower expectations than Avengers-type.

Summary: Online energy is solid for an adult action film, but it is not matching the viral traction of blockbuster franchises. It appears to slightly under-index relative to top tier tentpoles, but also over-indexes vs niche genre titles. Good indicator of a healthy, mid-tier opening.

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast (For Exhibitors)

Factor - AI Estimate - Rationale

Concession Spend per Capita ≈ $9.00 - Adult action film, likely higher spend via evening crowd and premium format usage.

Staffing Intensity Index 4 (on scale 1-5) - High initial interest; large fan/genre crowd; need for more staff Fri/Sat evenings.

Showtime Clustering Evening-heavy - Adults 18-49 skew: fewer matinees, more shows 6:30pm–10pm; a few early weekend shows.

Premium Format Demand ~18-22% of gross from PLF - Big director + spectacle + budget support strong PLF uptake (IMAX, Dolby, 4DX).

Cultural / Community Activation Medium-High Dystopian + game-show theme appeals to streaming/native viewers; potential influencer tie-ins and watch parties.

Operations Insight:

• Prioritize Thu night previews and strong Fri/Sat evening runs, especially in PLF houses.

• Reserve premium format screens for the first 2–3 weeks, then shift toward high-capacity standard format as big holiday titles roll in.

• Concessions: target adult groups — offer “survival kits” (large popcorn + craft soda), and maybe “game show” themed combos for novelty.

• Staff heavily Weeks 1–2; by Week 3, monitor drop and adjust showtimes accordingly (reduce matinees if attendance falls).

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table (Projected)

RangeOpening Weekend (US/Can)Total DomesticCanadaWorldwide*

Low $28–32M/ $90–110 M/ $8–10M/ $250–300M

Mid $32–40M/ $110–140 M/ $10–14M/ $300–360M

High $40–50M/ $140–180 M/ $14–18M/ $360–450M

*Worldwide estimate assumes domestic ~30-35% of global given big-budget action, strong international markets, and potential for PLF/4DX. Adjusted for genre and star power.

9️⃣ Executive Summary (Business Impact)

Forecast Positioning:

• The Running Man is a major studio-wide release — big budget (~$110 M), star-driven, directed by Edgar Wright — and is positioned for a strong opening if marketing resonates.

• My midpoint forecast (~$36 M OW, ~$120 M domestic) assumes good but not blockbuster break-out; there is upside if the film breaks through mainstream adult audience clusters.

• It’s competing in a crowded November holiday frame, so its leg-potential and premium format usage will be key to maximizing results.

Audience Behavior:

• The film is expected to attract a strong 18–49 adult audience, skewing male but with meaningful female participation.

• With premium formats and spectacle, expect higher initial engagement and front-loaded behaviour — i.e., big in first 2 weeks, then moderate drop and steady through Week 3–4 if word-of-mouth is favorable.

• Given its adult action nature, volumes in matinee/family slots will be lower; emphasis should be on evening/dinner times.

Programming & Staffing Actions:

• Opening Weekend: Aim for multiple shows per day (4–5) in prime houses starting Thu night previews; allocate PLF screens accordingly.

• Weeks 2–3: Maintain strong evening schedule; reduce showroom counts in smaller venues; monitor drop and consider targeted promotions for mid-week to sustain legs.

• Concessions & Premium Formats: Upsell premium content (PLF, premium seats) and themed concession bundles. Staffing should be heavier Fri/Sat evenings initially, tapering into Week 2 depending on attendance.

• Competition: Because other big titles will enter the frame (holiday/family heavy), consider repositioning this film as the “adult action alternative” or pairing with themed events (post-work groups, gamer nights, influencer promos).

Marketing & Community Opportunities:

• Leverage the “game show survival” angle: host in-theatre contests, tie-in with local escape rooms, or run influencer live-streams reflecting the film’s premise.

• Premium format events: midnight/late-night screenings in 4DX/IMAX to tap younger action-seeking crowd.

• Partner with streaming platforms: highlight the star Glen Powell, director Edgar Wright, and legacy of Stephen King to build cross-demographic awareness.

• Local promotions: “Survive the Night” adult-only event, themed concession combos (“Hunter vs Runner” popcorn), or giveaways linked to premium seats/PLF.

Actual:
🧠 The Running Man — What Went Wrong?

AI Forecast: $36M
Actual: $15.7M
Delta: –56%

Why it came in low:

1. Awareness lag:
   Social data (YouTube, TikTok) suggested higher interest than the actual audience awareness. The film did not break into general audience conversation.

2. Star Power Overestimated:
   Glen Powell is hot — but not that hot yet. His pull outside rom-com & comedy wasn’t as strong in the action lane.

3. Male demo cannibalization:
   Running Man ran directly into:

   • Predator: Badlands holdover

   • The Crow audience overlap

   • Rebel Moon streaming pull
     Competition nearly annihilated younger-male turnout.

4. Genre mismatch:
   Edgar Wright’s style = critics + cinephiles
   But mainstream action fans (who drive OW) stayed away.

AI Model Adjustment:

• Reduce “action revival” multiplier unless test screening data is strong.

• Down-weight “director brand power” unless they are Nolan, Villeneuve, or Jordan Peele levels.