The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

🎬 The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Paramount Pictures / Nickelodeon Movies
Release Date (U.S./Canada): December 19, 2025
Genre / MPAA Rating: Family Animation / Comedy / PG
Data Confidence: Medium–High (established IP + strong comps, but crowded holiday frame)

Release Tier: Tier 1 – Wide (3,500–4,000+ screens)

1️⃣ Opening Weekend (Domestic U.S.) — Projected

SpongeBob is a legacy kids IP with cross-generational awareness, but box office performance has historically been solid, not explosive, especially compared to Illumination or Pixar peaks.

Opening Weekend Forecast (3-Day)

• Low: $28M

• Mid (AI Midpoint): $38M

• High: $48M

Why this range:

• Strong brand recognition with parents + kids

• December 19 release benefits from holiday traffic, but front-end is muted compared to summer family films

• Competing directly with Avatar: Fire and Ash for screens and attention

• Minimal PLF advantage (family animation rarely dominates IMAX during tentpole weeks)

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross & Canada — Projected

SpongeBob films are leggy due to:

• School holidays

• Repeat kid viewing

• Matinee-driven business

Total Domestic Projection

• Low: $95M

• Mid: $125M

• High: $165M

Implied Multiplier: ~3.3×–4.3× opening weekend

🇨🇦 Canada Estimate

Family animation typically lands 10–12% of domestic.

• Canada: $13M–$18M (mid ≈ $15M)

Strong performance expected in GTA, Vancouver, Calgary, and suburban family markets.

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve — Projected

Weekend% Drop Commentary

1 → 2 –20% to –30% Christmas week lift offsets normal drop

2 → 3 –10% to –20%School holidays drive weekday matinees

3 → 4–25% to –35%Post-holiday normalization

4 → 5–30% to –40%Competition increases in January

Legs Outlook: Strong for a family title, especially under 90-minute runtime.

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment% Insight

Kids (Under 12) 35% Core driver; matinees dominate

Parents 30–45 30%Millennials grew up with SpongeBob

Teens 13–19 15% Secondary nostalgia audience

Adults 45+10%Family accompaniment

Young Adults (nostalgia-only)10%Light but present

Core Demo: Families + Millennial parents
Strength: Multi-generational familiarity
Weakness: Less urgency vs new-event animation

5️⃣ Comparable Films

Film Opening Weekend Total Domestic Why Comparable

The SpongeBob Movie (2004) $32M/$85M Original theatrical baseline

Sponge Out of Water (2015) $55M/$162M Strongest SpongeBob box office case

Sponge on the Run (2020) N/AHybrid Streaming skew limits usefulness

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (2023)$28M/$118M Nostalgic kids IP reboot

PAW Patrol: The Movie (2021)$13M$40M Nickelodeon family floor

The Bad Guys (2022)$24M$97MMid-tier family animation

Stretch Case: Sponge Out of Water
Floor Case: PAW Patrol

6️⃣ Social Media & Awareness Snapshot (Early)

Platform Read Commentary

YouTube Strong legacy interest Trailer views likely high with kids content autoplay

TikTok Moderate Nostalgia memes + parent creators

Instagram StrongNickelodeon cross-promo

X / Reddit Low–Moderate Not discourse-driven

Buzz Takeaway: Familiar and friendly, not viral.

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast (Exhibitors)

Factor Estimate Notes

Concession Spend $6.50–$7.25 Family combos

Staffing Index 3.5 / 5 Matinee-heavy

Showtime Pattern Late morning + afternoon Weekend & holiday driven

PLF Demand LowStandard screens sufficient

Community Activation High Birthday parties, family bundles

Exhibitor Insight:
This is a matinee workhorse, not a late-night driver. Schedule heavily on weekends and school holidays, pair with family concession bundles, and expect strong weekday daytime attendance through early January.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table

Range Opening Weekend/Total Domestic/ Canada /Worldwide*

Low $28M/$95M/$10M/$180M

Mid $38M/$125M/$15M/$230M

High$48M$165M$18M$300M

*Worldwide skew assumes strong international kids turnout but no breakout China run.

9️⃣ Executive Summary

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants is positioned as a reliable holiday family performer, not a breakout animation juggernaut. The AI Box Office model forecasts a $38M opening weekend and a $125M domestic total, driven by school holidays, matinee traffic, and multi-generational brand awareness.

While it will not compete head-to-head with Avatar: Fire and Ash for premium screens or cultural dominance, SpongeBob provides consistent daytime volume, strong family concession sales, and dependable holiday legs.

For exhibitors, this is a programming stabilizer — a title that quietly fills seats while the tentpoles battle for headlines.

Actual TBD