Zootopia 2

🎬 Zootopia 2 (2025)

Distributor / Studio: Walt Disney Animation Studios / Disney
Release Date: Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Genre / MPAA Rating: Animation / Family / PG
Data Confidence: High
Forecast Volatility: Moderate (holiday 5-day spread + heavy competition)

1️⃣ Opening Frame (Domestic U.S.) — Conservative Projection

Because Zootopia 2 opens on Wednesday of Thanksgiving week, we model both the 5-day total and the 3-day weekend:

5-Day Thanksgiving Opening (Wed–Sun)

• Low: $105M

• Mid (AI Midpoint Forecast): $125M

• High: $145M

3-Day Weekend (Fri–Sun)

• Low: $55M

• Mid: $65M

• High: $75M

Why conservative?

• Family attendance spreads out across 5 holiday days

• Competition: Wicked: For Good is only 5 days old

• Disney animation has been hit-and-miss post-pandemic

• Wednesday openings soften “weekend” numbers

Still, Zootopia 2 is positioned as the Thanksgiving holiday anchor.

2️⃣ Total Domestic Gross — Conservative Projection

Family animation historically has excellent legs in December.

AI Conservative Domestic Forecast:

• Low: $290M

• Mid: $360M

• High: $430M

Canada Estimate (10–12% range):

• $36M–$43M (midpoint)

Why not higher?

• Zootopia (2016) finished at $341M

• Heavy competition reduces PLF access

• Sequels in animation often show strong but not explosive multiples

3️⃣ Weekend-to-Weekend Drop Curve (Projected)

Weekend% Drop (Est.)Commentary5-Day → Weekend 2–40%Front-loaded family outings + holiday cooling.Weekend 2 → Weekend 3–32%Still boosted by early December school breaks.Weekend 3 → Weekend 4–28%Strong Christmas-adjacent legs typical for animation.

Legs Estimate: ~3.0–3.2× the 5-day opening.

4️⃣ Audience Demographic Breakdown (AI Estimate)

Segment% of AudienceCommentKids (5–12)25–30%Primary daytime audienceParents35–40%Family group anchorTeens10–12%Strong nostalgia from 2016 releaseAdults 25–49 (no kids)10–12%Disney brand interest50+5–8%Grandparents boosting matinees

Drivers: Kids + parents
Legs: Families, school breaks, holiday weekdays
Underserved: Teen-only groups (but still present)

5️⃣ Comparable Films

Film - Opening/ Domestic - Why Comparable

Zootopia (2016) $75M/$341M - Same franchise + strong legs

Moana 2 (2024) $80M/$310M - Disney sequel, strong family audience

Frozen II (2019) $130M/ $477M - Peak holiday animation sequel pattern

Inside Out 2 (2024) $154M/$603M - Demonstrates modern family demand ceiling

Encanto (2021) $40M (5-day)$96MHoliday release behavior example

6️⃣ Social Media & Sentiment Snapshot

Platform - Sentiment - Commentary

YouTube - Strong Trailer expected to hit 30–50M views pre-release.

TikTok - Very StrongJudy + Nick edits will explode.

X / Twitter - PositiveStrong - nostalgia + family hype.

Reddit - Positive Animation and family subs are calling it a “Thanksgiving lock.”

Overall Sentiment: Strong and rising
Viral Risk: Low (family animation isn't TikTok-front-loaded, but widely shared)

7️⃣ AI Operations Impact Forecast

Factor Estimate Notes

Concession Spend per Capita $6.75–$7.50 - Strong kids’ snack demand

Staffing Intensity 4.5/5 Very heavy matinees + holiday crowds

Showtime Clustering Heavy matinees + full evenings Classic family holiday behavior

Premium Format Demand High Families love PLF in Week 1–2

Community Activation Very High Schools, daycares, family programs

Operations Insight:
Expect packed lobbies, long concession lines, and VERY heavy matinee traffic from Wed–Sun. Zootopia 2 will maintain strong weekday business right through Christmas.

8️⃣ AI Box Office Projection Table — Conservative Baseline

Range 5-Day / Opening 3-Day / Weekend/ Total Domestic/ Canada /Worldwide*

Low $105M/ $55M/ $290M/ $29M/ $700M

Mid $125M /$65M /$360M /$36M /$850M
High $145M/$75M/$430M/$43M/ $1.0B

*Worldwide estimate conservative due to Disney brand strength + global franchise power.

9️⃣ Executive Summary

Zootopia 2 is positioned as the anchor of Thanksgiving 2025. With a Wednesday release and strong nostalgia for the original, it will capture families across the entire 5-day frame rather than spiking on Friday alone.

The conservative baseline forecasts:

• $125M midpoint 5-day opening

• $360M midpoint domestic

• Strong December legs, boosted by school breaks and holiday matinees

The only real competition is Wicked: For Good, which will still be a force in its sophomore frame. Even so, Zootopia 2 stands as one of Disney’s most reliable 2025 titles, powering family business through December.

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Actual:
Actual Opening Results (Domestic U.S.)

• Weekend (Fri–Sun): $96.8M

• Total Since Tuesday: $156.0M

• Preview Run (Tues–Thurs):
  $156.0M – $96.8M = $59.2M

Final 5-Day Opening Total: $156.0M

The preview run alone signals extraordinary midweek demand, especially for a family title in a competitive holiday market.

The AI Box Office Forecast (Original Conservative Model)

When Zootopia 2 was modeled pre-release, the expectation leaned conservative due to several factors: mixed Disney animation performance post-pandemic, competition from Wicked: For Good entering its second weekend, and the typical softening effect of midweek openings during Thanksgiving.

Forecasted 5-Day Thanksgiving Opening (Wed–Sun)

• Low: $105M

• Mid (AI Midpoint): $125M

• High: $145M

Forecasted Weekend (Fri–Sun)

• Low: $55M

• Mid: $65M

• High: $75M

Forecast vs Actual — How Close Were We?

5-Day Opening Performance

• Actual 5-Day: $156M

• AI Forecast Midpoint: $125M

• AI Forecast High: $145M

Outcome:
Zootopia 2 finished $31M above our midpoint and $11M above the high range, outperforming even the optimistic scenario.

Weekend Performance

• Actual Weekend: $96.8M

• AI Weekend Midpoint: $65M

• AI Weekend High: $75M

Outcome:
The weekend total exceeded the high-end projection by $21.8M, indicating that the expected holiday “spread-out effect” was far weaker than modeled.

Why Zootopia 2 Over-Performed

After reviewing the data and audience behaviour, several key factors stand out:

1. Exceptional Franchise Demand

The original Zootopia (2016) holds a strong emotional footprint across families, teens, and adults. That connection translated into a surge of early turnout — more front-loaded than typical for a family holiday release.

2. Enormous Midweek Strength

The $59.2M Tuesday–Thursday run is unusually high for Thanksgiving week and signals massive pent-up demand. Families and teens didn’t wait for the weekend.

3. Limited Direct Competition

While Wicked: For Good performed well, its older-leaning audience left the younger family demo uncontested. Zootopia 2 dominated the 5–12 and parent segments.

4. Strong Social Traction

TikTok in particular saw rapid circulation of Judy/Nick edits, character nostalgia clips, and fan-made trailers. Teen-driven engagement helped push the film beyond traditional family turnout.

5. Broad Four-Quadrant Appeal

The film attracted not only families but also:

• Teens revisiting the 2016 film

• Young adults driven by nostalgia

• Grandparents and multi-generational groups

This widened demo contributed to stronger-than-projected evenings and weekend showings.

What This Means for Future AI Forecasting

Every forecast vs actual creates an opportunity to refine the model. Zootopia 2 highlighted several areas for recalibration in Thanksgiving week projections:

1. Holiday Midweek Strength Needs Upward Adjustment

Midweek family demand — especially when pairing nostalgia + long-awaited sequels — may need a higher weighting.

2. Social Media Signals Should Carry More Predictive Power

TikTok traction was a clear leading indicator of teen turnout. This will be integrated more prominently in future models.

3. Competition Should Be Weighted by Demo Overlap, Not Just Size

Wicked was large, but not directly competitive for the core Zootopia demo. Modeling will reflect this nuance.

4. Animation Sequels Still Have Deep Box Office Potential

Despite post-pandemic variance, when the IP is strong, performance can exceed conservative expectations significantly.

Bottom Line — One of Disney’s Strongest Holiday Openers

The AI Box Office forecast captured the film’s strong potential, but Zootopia 2 ultimately surpassed even the high-end scenario. The final numbers underscore two truths:

1. Disney’s family franchises remain powerful holiday anchors, and

2. Audience behaviour continues to evolve, with social amplification and nostalgia delivering increasingly unpredictable surges.

As more data arrives, The AI Box Office will continue refining models to bring even closer, sharper, and more insightful projections — combining AI structure with real-world human instinct.